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Zeev Hed

12/19/03 10:05 AM

#184185 RE: MarketTurmoil #184183

Remind me over the weekend...
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Zeev Hed

12/20/03 9:55 AM

#184544 RE: MarketTurmoil #184183

Market, I just started reading BLTI's SEC documents, and the first thing that hit me was in their description of their waterlase system (the driving force, supposedly, for sales growth in the next few years). It is a big disappointment that a company concentrating in lasers would have a glaring technical error in their basic SEC (10K) filing. The sentence "YSGG is a shortened abbreviation referring to the unique crystal (Er, Cr: YSGG) laser used in the Waterlase, which contains the elements erbium, chromium, yttrium, scandium, gallium and garnet. " is not only clumsy (shortened abbreviation?) but erroneous. Garnet is surely not an element, it represent a family of crystals (like sapphire, and close to it, with Al replaced by Ga and typically a trivalent rare earth). I'll continue once I got a better understanding of their potential, but after reading such error in a 10K, I usually toss the company off my radar screen(g).
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Zeev Hed

12/20/03 10:41 AM

#184559 RE: MarketTurmoil #184183

Technically, BLTI must print and close above $16 to become interesting again. I think there is a good chance that will happen if they continue and grow their sales. In anticipation of such , buying in the $13 to $14 might be an interesting gambit with a target of $20 to $25. They have a number of competitors and the dental market is not one that adapts rapidly new technology. I would guess that over time they may capture 20% of the market (or about 35,000 systems), since that may take a good 10 years, I would guess that they can reach sales of $200 MM annually on the dental system (I am not taking international potential sales into account, most of these take much longer to materialize). So the growth prospects from their current sales rate of about $60 MM annually are pretty good. A $25/share, their market cap would be north of $500 MM, a little more than twice what I think their sales rate would be, not too exuberant. The major question, is of course, what will they do "next"....I can't answer that.

I have not found any egregious compensation shenanigans, a good sign, but they have few patent suits outstanding, I cannot determine what would be the future impact of such on their business. They seems to be on a nice growth path from here on and are worth watching. That is about what I can do in a short two hours look at this one. I'll start following them up in the near future. The best way to learn a company is to start and trade them, getting few bruises until one learns their unique pattern. If you have anything to add, please educate us.