Replies to post #44695 on Biotech Values

[genisi]

VRTX-
Thanks Jon for the insight.
I think that most VRTX investors expect a higher rate than the 40-50% range Piper Jaffray analyst predicts.

[dewophile]

i agree with your post, but in addition - you may have intimated this but just to be clear - there is a group of patients who may have indeed dropped out and still went on to svr who on an ITT basis could boost svr stats..some of these may have subsequently continued a course of soc so it muddies the waters some, but others probably stopped all therapy and may be included in the upcoming release..not that i am a vrtx bull, but i could envision a scenario where a side effect such as a rash could correlate to a heightened sensitivity to telaprevir or some other component of the triple therapy and hence serve as a biologic marker of response..such a high responder if you will with fulminant side effects could also have an equally impressive efficacy response such that if they tough out 8 or 10 weeks of triple therapy and then drop out they may still have a svr..so not every dropout is necessarily a failure on an ITT basis
but all in all we are all going to have to read between the lines to really see what the denominator is in the upcoming telaprevir releases