I think you have come up with something with the 63 ema. I would think if we close under it again and move slowly lower, the 100 is pretty likely soon.
The 63 serves as a good heads up or bounce point either way
Have you ever looked at an MA of something other than the close? You might try a 50ema of the high and a 50ema of the low, to provide a "band" rather than a single line. Just something you might want to try.
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