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$SPY $1.3 Billion Worth of Sig Dark Pool Prints Today
By: Cheddar Flow | December 4, 2024
• $SPY $1.3B Worth of Sig Dark Pool Prints Today .
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S&P 500 Looks Headed for Strong 2nd Half of December
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | December 4, 2024
• There's still time for investors to take advantage of December seasonality
• December has the highest percentage of positive returns, historically
December is a particularly interesting month for stock market seasonality. The table below summarizes the S&P 500 Index’s (SPX) monthly returns since 1950. Historically, December has been a strong performer, ranking second only to November in average return and first in percentage of positive returns. Though we have already started the month, investors still have more than a week to act, as gains have typically been concentrated in the second half of December.
While we explore the specifics below, let’s also break down the impact of November’s strong performance on December’s seasonality.
A Tale of Two Halves
The next table breaks down SPX returns by half-months, listing each month’s performance for its first and second halves separately. The first half of December ranks 18th out of the 24 half-months going by average return. The second half of December, however, stands out as the strongest half-month of the year. It has the highest average return, the highest percentage of positive returns by 13% (78% vs. 65% for the next highest), and it has the lowest standard deviation of returns. Based on this, you’re not missing out by waiting before buying.
S&P 500 Up Big in November
The SPX had a big November, climbing 5.7%. I broke down December returns since 1950 following months in which the index gained over 5%. In these cases, the contrast between the first and second half of December was even more striking. Out of 14 such instances, the first half of December averaged a loss of 0.81%, with only 50% of the returns positive. In contrast, the second half outperformed its already strong historical average, gaining 1.71% on average, with 86% of the returns positive. Based on this, it might be better to wait before buying, based on December’s strong seasonality.
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Overbought Markets Pullback During Typical Early December Weakness
By: Almanac Trader | December 3, 2024
• Choppy First Half Before Yearend Santa Claus Rally
• Small Caps Surge in Election Years
• “January Effect” Small Cap Outperformance Starting Mid-December
Trading in December is holiday-inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins. December’s first trading day leans bearish for S&P 500 and Russell 1000 over the last 21 years. A modest rally through the sixth or seventh trading day also has fizzled going into mid-month. It is around this point that holiday cheer tends to kick in (and tax-loss selling pressure fades) propelling the indexes higher with a pause near month-end. Election year Decembers follow a similar path, but with noticeably larger historical gains in second half of the month by Russell 2000.
Small caps tend to start to outperform larger caps near the middle of the month (early January Effect) and our “Free Lunch” strategy is served from the offerings of stocks making new 52-week lows on Quad-Witching Friday. An email Issue will be sent prior to the market’s open on December 23 containing “Free Lunch” stock selections. The “Santa Claus Rally” begins on the open on December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of 2025. Average S&P 500 gains over this seven trading-day period since 1969 are a respectable 1.3%.
This is our first indicator for the market in the New Year. Years when the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) has failed to materialize are often flat or down. Six of the last seven times our SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year) has not occurred were followed by three flat years (1994, 2004 and 2015) and two nasty bear markets (2000 and 2008) and a mild bear that ended in February 2016. Santa’s no show earlier this year was likely due to temporary inflation and interest rate concerns that quickly faded. As Yale Hirsch’s now famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
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The 10 Top/Bottom Nasdaq 100 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | December 4, 2024
• Today (8:34 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the NASDAQ 100 Index.
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$SPY - The 2024 grand finale
By: TrendSpider | December 3, 2024
• The 2024 grand finale. $SPY
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The S&P 500 is Almost at $6060. What’s Next?
By: Dr. Arnout Ter Schure | December 3, 2024
• SPX6060 has almost been reached, but only a break below SPX5984 will alert us to a larger correction before SPX6275+ can be reached.
The Ending Diagonal Continues to Subdivide
Using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) for the SP500 (SPX), we found three weeks ago that
“if the index can stay at least above SPX5880, and especially last week’s low at SPX5696, we must allow it to ideally target SPX6060, possibly as high as SPX6175 before the next correction of around 5-7% can start.”
Moreover, we’ve been tracking the index’s advance as an Ending Diagonal (ED) structure. As a reminder, EDs are tricky because all their waves (i–ii–iii–iv–v) comprise three waves: 3-3-3-3-3 = abc–abc–abc–abc–abc. Besides, W-iii typically targets the 123.60% extension of W-i, measured from W-ii. The W-iv then tends to correct back to the 61.80% extension, after which the last W-v targets the 161.80% extension. In this case, we are looking at W-iii to reach at least SPX6060, W-iv should bottom around SPX5735, and W-v can reach at least SPX6275.
True to the ED’s path, the advance since our last update decided to subdivide into another set of abc, with the November 11 SPX6017 high as (grey) W-a of (green) W-c of the (red) W-iii. The November 15 SPX5915 low was the (grey) W-b, and now the grey W-c is underway. See Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. Preferred Elliott Wave count
Tracking Fibonacci Extensions
Thus, the Bulls held the index price above the critical SPX5880 level, allowing our premium members to stay on the right side of the trade as the red W-iii was still underway. The green W-c subdivided into another set of smaller (grey) abc. Typical ED behavior. It can reach the typical c=a extension at SPX6175ish, but the 0.764x extension is around $6060. Moreover, the usual grey W-c target zone is $6145+/-10, but the market can also deviate from that. So, we still expect the red W-iii to reach SPX6060-6175, from where the red W-iv can materialize.
We can raise our warning levels from our last update: if the index can stay at least above SPX5984, and especially the November 21 low at SPX5887, we must allow it to ideally target SPX6060, possibly as high as SPX6175 before the next correction of around 5-7% can start.
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$NDX - Striving to follow my Blue-Script, and holding over those two 4Hr EMA's (100 & 200)...
By: Sahara | December 3, 2024
• $NDX - Striving to follow my Blue-Script, and holding over those two 4Hr EMA's (100 & 200)...
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The 10 Top/Bottom S&P 500 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | December 3, 2024
• Today (8:35 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the S&P 500 Index.
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Markets Monthly Pattern »» Watchlist - Top 10
By: Marty Armstrong | December 3, 2024
• Dow Jones Industrials Index »» Turning BACK DOWN
• NASDAQ Composite Index »» In Breakout Mode
• NASDAQ 100 Index »» Moving Higher
• S&P 500 Index »» New Pattern Forming
• Russell 2000 Index »» Pressing Higher
• US Dollar Index »» New Pattern Forming
• CBOE VIX Index »» New Pattern Forming
• NY Gold Futures »» Preparing to Drop Hard
• NY Silver COMEX Futures »» New Pattern Forming
• NY Crude Oil Futures »» Possible Reaction High
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25 Best S&P Stocks to Own in December, Including Broadcom
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | December 2, 2024
• AVGO finished December higher in eight of the past 10 years
• The security is up 50.1% this year
After a particularly strong November, traders are eager to protect their profits as the year winds down. Bearing this in mind, we compiled a list of the 25 best stocks to own during December.
Focusing in on number three on the list, Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) is the only chip manufacturer in the top 20. Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, AVGO finished the month of December higher eight times in the past 10 years, averaging a gain of 7.3%.
Broadcom stock resisted the broader-market trend with a 4.5% November loss. In fact, subscribers to Expiration Week Countdown tripled their money with our AVGO put recommendation last month. The stock already appears to be on the rebound, however, up 2.9% at $166.72 at last check today.
Broadcom stock's 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 21.9 sits in "oversold" territory, which is also indicative of a short-term bounce. Plus, long-term support at the 200-day moving average -- which captured pullbacks in August and September -- still lingers below. Year to date, the equity is up 50.1%.
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The 25 Worst S&P Stocks to Own in December
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | December 2, 2024
• Salesforce stock stands out as the SPX component with the worst December returns
• CRM tops the list ahead of tomorrow's earnings report
Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM) stock is 0.5% higher to trade at $331.52 at last glance, as the cloud software company prepares for its third-quarter earnings report, due out after the close on Tuesday, Dec. 3. While earnings could cause some short-term volatility, there's a seasonality picture taking form that's more worrisome in the long term.
According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of the 25 worst returns in December, CRM is the worst performing stock on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) when looking at data from the last 10 years.
Per White's analysis, the security finished the month lower nine times over the last decade, averaging a 4.7% drop and beating sector peers Oracle (ORCL) and Paycom Software (PAYC). A move of similar magnitude would put Salesforce stock near the $315, an area it's traded above since early November.
On the charts, Salesforce stock has been on a tear, finishing 11 of the last 15 weeks higher. This November was the stock's best monthly performance in a year, with help from the 20-day moving average. However, the recent outperformance could have the stock due for a short-term pullback.
Circling back to earnings, Salesforce stock has a mixed history of next-day sessions, finishing four higher and four lower over the last two years. Regardless of direction, the equity averaged a 7.5% swing the day after reporting, and the options pits are pricing in a slightly larger move of 10.3% this time around.
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$SPY SUPER BULLISH Flow Millions worth of call orders, some even have the 615 strike
By: Cheddar Flow | December 2, 2024
• $SPY SUPER BULLISH FLOW
Millions worth of call orders, some even have the 615 strike
It is very unusual to see this amount of premium + continuous prints.
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November 2024 Asset Class Performance
By: Bespoke Investment Group | December 2, 2024
• With November market action now behind us, below is a look at what worked and what didn't during the month. For each ETF across asset classes, we also include its performance (total return) since the close on Election Day (11/5) and on a year-to-date basis.
There's been a stark difference in performance between US equities and international markets recently. While most US index ETFs were up 5-10% in November, most country ETFs shown on the right side of the matrix were in the red.
In the US, small-caps surged in November with the Russell 2,000 (IWM) up 11.1%. That compares to a gain of 5.96% for large caps (SPY).
Looking at sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) led the way in November with a gain of 12.9%. Much of that gain is thanks to Tesla's (TSLA) massive post-election move higher. On the flip side, Health Care (XLV) was the weakest sector in November with only a small gain of 0.4% and a drop of 0.3% since the election.
Commodity ETFs outside of natural gas and ag have also been weak recently, especially gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) which were up huge in 2024 prior to their November pullbacks.
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$SPY has broken out above $600, with the BX Trender turning on the weekly chart—signaling bullish accumulation...
By: Peter DiCarlo | December 1, 2024
• $SPY has broken out above $600, with the BX Trender turning on the weekly chart—signaling bullish accumulation.
December is historically a strong month, and I anticipate the S&P 500 will continue to rally into year-end.
While short-term pullbacks are always possible, I’m expecting a classic Santa rally this season.
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The 10 Top/Bottom S&P 500 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | December 2, 2024
• Today (8:38 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the S&P 500 Index.
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The 10 Top/Bottom Nasdaq 100 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | December 2, 2024
• Today (8:38 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the NASDAQ 100 Index.
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With the Market Greed/Fear Index hovering at 81.38, it looks like investors are more excited than kids in a candy store
By: Isabelnet | December 2, 2024
• Sentiment
With the Market Greed/Fear Index hovering at 81.38, it looks like investors are more excited than kids in a candy store.
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S&P 500: Market optimism is so high, even bears are buying "Bull Market 2025" t-shirts, as the S&P 500 index has consistently risen in the six months following a significant milestone, with an above-average return of 7.7% since 1928
By: Isabelnet | December 2, 2024
• S&P 500
Market optimism is so high, even bears are buying "Bull Market 2025" t-shirts, as the S&P 500 index has consistently risen in the six months following a significant milestone, with an above-average return of 7.7% since 1928.
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$SPX - We're probably in the 5th wave off the 2022 low...
By: CyclesFan | December 1, 2024
• $SPX - We're probably in the 5th wave off the 2022 low. Waves 1 and 3 lasted 9 months each. If wave 5 lasts 9 months the bull market would top in May. The wave 5 = wave 1 log target is 6750. The other scenario is a top in January 2026. In that case the target would be around 7K.
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$NDX - Closed the month above the 1.618 extension of the 2022 bear market. The next price target is the 2.0 extension at 23089...
By: CyclesFan | December 1, 2024
• $NDX - Closed the month above the 1.618 extension of the 2022 bear market. The next price target is the 2.0 extension at 23089. I'm not sure this bull market will get higher than that given the weakness we've seen since July in most big tech names.
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$SPX - Now we have a weekly close above the 1.618 extension at 6010. This means that SPX is headed to the 2.0 extension at 6220...
By: CyclesFan | December 1, 2024
• $SPX - Now we have a weekly close above the 1.618 extension at 6010 which I've mentioned for the entire week. This means that SPX is headed to the 2.0 extension at 6220. It's probably not going to get there straight away, but it's a reasonable target by the end of the year.
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The $SPX trailing P/E is 30.8. It's still nowhere near the 42 top of 2021 or the 35 top of 1999...
By: CyclesFan | December 1, 2024
• The $SPX trailing P/E is 30.8. It's still nowhere near the 42 top of 2021 or the 35 top of 1999. Also, those PE tops occurred well ahead of the bull market top. In 1999 it was 11 months before top and in 2021 it was 10 months before the top. We're still nowhere near a major top.
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This market-timing model nailed the 2022 meltdown. Now it’s warning that stocks are a ‘dead cold sell.’
By: Mark Hulbert | November 29, 2024
• Value Line’s Median Appreciation Potential predicts where stock prices will be in three to five years
A little-known market timing indicator with a spot-on track record has just flashed a “dead cold sell” signal.
The indicator appears in the Value Line Investment Survey, published weekly by Value Line VALU 1.42%. It is the median projection from the firm’s analysts of where the 1,700 mid- and large-cap stocks they track will be trading in three to five years. Devotees of this market-timing indicator refer to it as VLMAP, for Value Line’s Median Appreciation Potential.
The “dead cold sell” prediction is attributable to Daniel Seiver, an emeritus economics professor at Miami University (Ohio) who currently teaches economics at California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo, Calif. As far as I can tell, Seiver was one of the first advisers to discover the VLMAP’s market-timing potential.
In addition to recommending the Value Line model in his 1986 book, “Outsmarting Wall Street,” Seiver has been using the model ever since in his investment newsletter, The PAD System Report. (Disclosure: Seiver’s newsletter is not one of the services that pay a flat fee to my performance auditing firm to track their returns.)
For Seiver, A VLMAP reading of 100 is a buy signal. Such a reading corresponds to a projected doubling of stock prices over the subsequent three- to five years.
The last time the VLMAP was that high was in April 2020, following the waterfall-like market decline that accompanied the initial COVID-19 lockdown. (To read the column I wrote about it at the time, click here.) Since then, the S&P 500 SPX 0.56% has produced a total return of 21.9% annualized — more than twice its historical average.
Now the VLMAP is at the opposite end of the valuation spectrum from April 2020. Its current reading of 35 is a sell-signal in Seiver’s analysis. Though the human tendency is to extrapolate the recent past into the indefinite future, a contrarian approach is the better bet. The last time the VLMAP was as low as it is today was at the market top in late 2021, just prior to the 2022 bear market.
When VLMAP is <= 35 When VLMAP is >= 100
S&P 500’s return over subsequent 1 year 4.1% 14.8%
S&P 500’s annualized return over subsequent 3 years 4.7% 10.3%
S&P 500’s annualized return over subsequent 5 years 4.8% 10.5%
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Since 1928, the S&P 500 has been positive in December 74% of the time, the highest of any month
By: Charlie Bilello | November 30, 2024
• Since 1928, the S&P 500 has been positive in December 74% of the time, the highest of any month.
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The Worst Performing Stocks in the S&P 500 this year...
By: Charlie Bilello | November 30, 2024
• The Worst Performing Stocks in the S&P 500 this year...
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