The hole in your scenario is that we already have ABClear 2 and 3 data to help mitigate the risk. The question really becomes if you believe they can duplicate the results in a P3. If you do, the investment return with Anavex would offer much greater returns. Risk versus reward and do you believe in the science.
"In your scenario, Anavex is a binary event. In three or more years Blarcamesine for AD either succeeds or fails. That’s a huge risk that some retail investors might be willing to take but institutional biotech investors will likely not take."
That is the same risk that every pre-revenue biotech has. Clearly institutional biotech investors do indeed take on such risks for the potential huge rewards.
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