The market might just be at the start of the next commodity supercycle, according to energy strategist Jeff Currie of Carlyle Group.
In a thread posted to X Friday morning, Currie laid out a multi-pronged argument for why the market is right at the beginning of the next years-long rally cycle for commodities that he called “the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.”
First, he said the AI trade faces major physical bottlenecks in energy, metals, and compute capacity, even as the “Magnificent Seven” companies are expected to spend more than $700 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 alone.
The Iran conflict has triggered the largest energy supply shock in history as the oil market has lost more than 13.7 million barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs. Traders argue that even after the war resolves, the playing field for the Persian Gulf — one of the most important supply markets in the world for everything from energy and metals to fertilizers — has changed.
“The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade,” Currie wrote.
The market is also swinging toward de-globalization, Currie argues, moving the market from a “HAGO” model focused on “hard assets, global operations” to “HALO,” which Currie redefines as “hard assets, local operations,” from its typical meaning of “heavy assets, low obsolescence.”
“This is the Revenge of the Old Economy in real time,” Currie wrote. “Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.”
Overview: Amerigo Resources Ltd., with a market cap of CA$985.34 million, operates through its subsidiary Minera Valle Central S.A. to produce copper and molybdenum concentrates from the El Teniente mine in Chile.
Operations: Minera Valle Central S.A., a subsidiary of Amerigo Resources, generates revenue primarily from the production and sale of copper and molybdenum concentrates. The financial performance is influenced by factors such as commodity prices and operational efficiencies.
Amerigo Resources, a nimble player in the metals and mining sector, has shown impressive earnings growth of 156.5% over the past year, outpacing industry averages. The company is trading at 25.7% below its estimated fair value, suggesting potential undervaluation. With no debt on its books compared to a 40.5% debt-to-equity ratio five years ago, Amerigo's financial health appears robust. Recent quarterly results revealed sales of US$66 million and net income of US$14 million, reflecting significant growth from the previous year’s figures of US$44 million in sales and US$3 million in net income.
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