Strategic Materials

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>>> The next commodities supercycle?

The market might just be at the start of the next commodity supercycle, according to energy strategist Jeff Currie of Carlyle Group.

In a thread posted to X Friday morning, Currie laid out a multi-pronged argument for why the market is right at the beginning of the next years-long rally cycle for commodities that he called “the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.”

First, he said the AI trade faces major physical bottlenecks in energy, metals, and compute capacity, even as the “Magnificent Seven” companies are expected to spend more than $700 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 alone.

The Iran conflict has triggered the largest energy supply shock in history as the oil market has lost more than 13.7 million barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs. Traders argue that even after the war resolves, the playing field for the Persian Gulf — one of the most important supply markets in the world for everything from energy and metals to fertilizers — has changed.

“The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade,” Currie wrote.

The market is also swinging toward de-globalization, Currie argues, moving the market from a “HAGO” model focused on “hard assets, global operations” to “HALO,” which Currie redefines as “hard assets, local operations,” from its typical meaning of “heavy assets, low obsolescence.”

“This is the Revenge of the Old Economy in real time,” Currie wrote. “Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.”

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-eye-nvidia-bond-yields-and-the-next-commodity-supercycle-what-to-watch-this-week-104255761.html



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