Excellent analysis JTFM. With this and all of the other catalysts, the hedge funds and market makers must be using the new math.. Hopefully we get some nice analyst price upgrades next week.
The trading in ANIP the day of earnings was wild. It opened at 87.76 and then proceeded to drop like a stone, hitting the low of the day (79.37) 15 minutes later. Volume was heavy, as you would expect around the release of earnings. A couple of big block trades at the close kept the stock out of positive territory on the day and at a price that is just below the technically important 200 day MA.
There was definitely some confusion about the quality of the earnings "beat and raise", as they had additional license fee revenue of 15MM in Q1 and also guided for other development milestones being hit in both Q2 and Q3 that trigger payments of $10MM in each quarter. Analysts questioned how much of that was already in the company's previous guidance, so I guess questioning the actual strength of the underlying business going forward? As we all know, this company always guides conservatively, so that it can keep the bar low and be able to continue raising guidance in most quarters. I was surprised that the stock closed lower on the day, given the increased guidance and analysts now increasing their eps estimates for next year as well. I guess whenever guidance is back-end loaded, there is always a little bit of concern as to whether the company can achieve its goals.
JTFM, what is your take on the earnings call and trading reaction?
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