Replies to post #16534 on ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP)

[Just the facts maam]

Regarding earnings call. Lalwani reiterated that most of the growth in Corti for 2026 is from the legacy indications, RA, Pulmonary, etc... There will be increasing Acute Gouty Arthritis sales which will have a full years affect in 2027. Though he previously stated this accelerated growth would extend to 2028. With 7,000 new prescribers being targeted in the US , it will take time to reach full penetration.

I believe the hedge funds are actively depressing PPS. That is why institutional investment is near 100% of the float and short interest is above 15%.

FYI, ANIP maintained Corti guidance of $265 - $274 million in Q1 earnings release for 2025, then went on to report $348 million in revenue. ANIP's MO, under Lalwani, has been to under promise and over deliver. I fully expect a raise in Corti guidance at Q2 earnings release and another raise in guidance at Q3 earnings release.

If analyst do the math they will come to the conclusion that Cori sales will be approaching $200 million in Q4. Using this as the 2027 run rate puts at $800 million for 2027. Though sequential quarter over quarter increase in market penetration should drive sales even higher in 2027 with continued growth going in 2028.

I would also not be surprised if they eventually intend to get Corti approved in Europe, why else would they have presented findings for the use of Purified Cortrophin® Gel in Murine Collagen-Induced Arthritis Mouse Model at the European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) 2025 Congress in June 2025.

https://investor.anipharmaceuticals.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ani-pharmaceuticals-announces-presentation-new-preclinical-data

[SSKILLZ1]

ANIP

I don't own ANIP at this point, but have owned it before, and for disclosures purposes I would think about buying it back in the low to mid 70's if it ever got there. But I wasn't surprised that it didn't go up in fact looking at the quarter I thought it would trade into the 70's short-term.

Keep In mind the midpoint was raised about .35 this year. Having said that this upfront payment and milestone payments are one time or at least episodic in nature. Hence I would ex this out. I don't believe they were in guidance before, hence they actually lowered guidance on the rest of the year, hence why the stock is down. I mean based on my math 35 million, taxing that at say 25%, they have lowered the mid point for the year if you ex this episodic revenue and earnings by .87. Now do I believe they are being conservative and they see it as a way to continue to raise guidance in future quarters, most likely that is the case. having said that based on the math, I understand why the stock sold off a little, because although it looks like they raised guidance in the short-term in reality if you don't like to add in this episodic revs and earnings which appear to have not been built into guidance originally, at least that is my take, they really lower the bar almost by 10% this year which isn't great in my opinion. Now I do believe that probably this company is being conservative, and I do believe the future is bright here, so there is that as well. Having said that I can't say this quarter's guide was a positive it was a slight negative in my opinion. All is just my opinion and I could always be wrong though.