Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is starting to look behind in the humanoid robot race, as Chinese rivals move faster from prototypes to real world deployment and begin exporting robots globally.
According to a new Morgan Stanley report, U.S. companies like Tesla have largely focused on building expensive, high performance humanoids while taking a slower, more cautious path toward production. China, by comparison, has pushed robots into real world environments much earlier, with companies like Unitree and Agibot already showcasing humanoids in logistics, entertainment, sports and defense settings.
Tesla recently said preparations for its first large scale Optimus factory will begin in Q2 at its Fremont facility, with ambitions to eventually produce up to 1 million robots annually. But analysts argue Chinese competitors already have a meaningful head start, backed by a powerful supply chain and aggressive rollout strategy. Morgan Stanley says China is increasingly dominating key humanoid components as well, including advanced robotic hands, creating another advantage over rivals in the U.S., Japan and South Korea.
The opportunity itself is massive. Goldman Sachs estimates the humanoid robotics market could expand from about $3 billion in 2023 to as much as $38 billion by 2035, and Morgan Stanley believes China is positioning itself to dominate the next phase of global manufacturing through robotics, much like it did with EVs and batteries.
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