Bigworld, >> $30, $29 and $28 <<
The thing is, during the Iran war chaos the gold / silver movements have generally been in the same direction as the stock market, ie the opposite of what one would expect from a disaster hedge. And that phenomenon could continue for some time?
One reason for gold's tank job has apparently been that foreign countries desperately needed to raise cash, so they sold whatever was available. Gold was already way up, so it was a logical place to raise cash. The disorder from this war may just be getting started, with inflation surging, a recession likely, etc. Once tankers start getting through the Strait in large numbers (whenever that is), there is still the 6+ week gap where no tankers were moving. It normally takes 1-1.5 months for tankers to arrive at their destinations, and this 'gap' in tanker traffic arrivals is only just starting to hit the world economy.
Chart-wise, using SLV as a timing guide, I would probably wait until SLV at least gets down to re-test 60 (March low) prior to buying. Better yet would be a return to the area of the 200 MA (SLV ~ 54), and the Oct / Nov highs (SLV near 50). That's the obvious target range anyway --> SLV from 50-55. It may not get there, or may take a number of months, but the 200 MA is what everyone on Wall St will be watching.
On the gold side, using GLD as a timing tool, the target area to watch is also the 200 MA (GLD at 382). GLD is currently at 437.
Fwiw, I have no plans to add to my 30% metals allocation, but would consider it if the metals get down to test their 200 MAs.
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