I expect conditional approval, but no NICE reimbursement until 2028 at the earliest. I still expect the stock to be slammed as endless dilution in pennies is inevitable. No major institutional investors or big pharma is going to fund this team. So the trap is being set, but excellent opportunity for LP’s financiers and shorts to pile on if there is even a modest spike on conditional approval news.
In essence, LP’s financing post conditional approval will set the upper end of share price and then it will all be downhill from there. Financiers will milk both ways and shorts will likely pile on again as well. Easy opportunity for them to play the next set of disappointing news around quarterly earnings, delays in important milestones such as FDA BLA, Flaskworks/Eden, NICE, other RAs, clinical trials, etc.
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