Loony Don - >>> Trump hints he'd be willing to leave Iran without taking the Strait of Hormuz. Market watchers are skeptical.
Yahoo Finance
by Ben Werschkul
March 31, 2026
A central question for the global economy came into stark relief Tuesday: Would President Trump really leave Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, either by diplomacy or force?
On the same day that average US gas prices topped $4 a gallon, Trump seemed to say he is open to the idea, posting that other countries should “build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT.”
“You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” the president wrote.
The problem for markets is that Trump’s public pronouncements often veer wildly — he delivered essentially the opposite message on Monday — around an issue that appears to be coming to a head.
US ground forces are now reportedly in the region for a potential escalation of the conflict, but the Wall Street Journal also reports Trump has told aides he’s willing to end the campaign even if the waterway remains largely closed.
It’s all evidence of the conundrum facing the White House, torn between dire economic projections of what would follow if US forces leave without breaking Iran’s grip on the waterway and an equally strong desire to end US engagement.
This question is one of many facing the president in the coming days as the war nears the end of its fifth week, with crude oil prices firmly above $100 per barrel.
Some close market watchers expressed skepticism that Trump would really be willing to walk away from the strait given fears that energy prices could shoot even higher if he does.
Global energy markets would undoubtedly be further unsettled by a situation in which Iran could indefinitely control traffic (and even charge fees) in the 21-mile-wide waterway through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil passes.
Signum Global Advisors, in a note to clients on Tuesday morning, said it was “extremely unlikely” that Trump would end the war without first at least trying to reopen the strait.
The group offered three reasons: damage to the US economy, adverse impacts on Trump’s Persian Gulf allies, and how leaving the strait in Iranian control “would put the US at a comparative global disadvantage.”
Skepticism that the president can leave — and steep economic costs if he tries
Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research wrote in his own note that “it’s seemed clear for the past 1-2 weeks that Trump is ready to be done with the war,” but he also downplayed the chances of a hasty withdrawal “without demonstrating that we can reopen the Strait of Hormuz militarily.”
On the question of whether the president could “chicken out” and simply turn away from the region, Marcus added, “a real TACO would come at a cost, which Trump isn’t (yet) ready to pay.”
A flurry of economic observers warned that the effects on the global economy could be dramatic if there is no clear end to the current conflict.
“Basically, you would be elevating Iran to a superpower … only their oil would get out, and they would probably try and use it to crush the West,” Bianco said.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink added last week during an interview with the BBC that oil prices could reach $150 per ?barrel and cause a global recession if Iran remains “a threat ?to the Strait of Hormuz” after the end of hostilities.
Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, added on X Tuesday that “ending a war while leaving Hormuz closed isn’t ‘peace’, it’s surrendering the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, guaranteeing higher energy prices, economic shock, and long-term instability.”
A yo-yoing message from Trump
Trump’s often-changing messages are adding to the confusion.
On Monday morning, the president issued an ultimatum to Iran, posting that “if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately ‘Open for Business,’” the US would retaliate by “obliterating” things like electricity infrastructure, Kharg Island, and even desalination plants.
But roughly 24 hours later, Trump declared that the strait is not his problem, telling other nations to “go get your own oil!”
It’s part of a pattern that has persisted since the beginning of the war.
Some days, the president uses absolutist language on the need to reopen the strait immediately. In fact, Monday’s message was at least Trump’s fifth ultimatum demanding Iran fully open the area for shipping or face violence.
But other days, he has downplayed the importance of the waterway and falsely claimed the US doesn’t rely on it.
Trump’s message has also been mixed on whether the war is ending — or escalating.
Within a few hours on Sunday, the president told reporters he was “pretty sure” a deal with Tehran was close, but then told the Financial Times the US may seize Iran's main oil export hub and “take the oil.”
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