Shares of Tesla Inc. are tracking toward their worst quarter in a year ahead of this week’s delivery report, after an analyst warned the company’s results “have never matched the hype” surrounding its long-running self-driving ambitions.
Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, said on X that “TSLA has underperformed [broader benchmarks] because it has never lived up to the hype” that its vehicles would operate autonomously without supervision, he said.
Waymo Progress Puts Pressure On Tesla Black also cited progress by Waymo, Alphabet's robotaxi unit, as evidence that competitors remain further ahead in unsupervised deployment. Waymo is currently delivering roughly 500,000 paid rides per week across 10 cities, with a target of reaching 1 million rides per week by year-end, he said.
GLJ Research CEO Gordon Johnson said expectations around Tesla’s autonomy rollout are overstated, arguing that the system is far from scalable robotaxi deployment. “The FSD ‘spell’ is wearing off,” Johnson said, adding that “FSD is STILL supervised, geofenced robotaxis don’t scale, and $1,000/shr by EOY ’26 is delusion."
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