Replies to post #819284 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[KRISGO]

It’s actually very positive if the company paid for the report. Logically, a company would only do that if they’re confident approval is coming, even if it’s been delayed. If the MHRA process were still uncertain or stuck in appeals, they likely wouldn’t move forward with something like this.
They probably just need more time, and in the meantime, the stock price should hold at reasonable levels to support ongoing dilution and keep the business running.

1. The "Bull" Logic: Why the $1.00 Target?
In the full report and subsequent analyst commentary, Christian Orquera justifies the $1.00 target (a ~350% increase) based on a "Risk-Adjusted Net Present Value" (rNPV).

Probability of Success (PoS): The analyst is assigning a high probability of approval in the UK because the trial met its Overall Survival (OS) endpoint. In oncology, OS is the "Gold Standard"—regulators find it much harder to reject a drug that demonstrably extends life compared to drugs that only shrink tumors temporarily.

Market Penetration: The $1.00 target assumes that DCVax-L captures roughly 20-30% of the "eligible" glioblastoma market in the UK and eventually Europe. Because there has been no new standard of care for 20 years, the analyst believes adoption will be rapid once the NHS/NICE approves funding.

Manufacturing Moat: The report explicitly mentions Advent Bioservices (Sawston). The analyst views the 2026 decision as a "double win"—approval of the drug and validation of the unique "living medicine" factory, which could then be used for other companies' drugs (CDMO revenue).

2. Key Takeaways from the Investor Call
The company and analysts discussed several "under the radar" points during the recent briefing:

The "UK First" Strategy: They confirmed that the UK is the absolute priority because of the Innovative Licensing and Access Pathway (ILAP). This allows for a "rolling review" where the MHRA can ask questions and get answers in real-time, rather than waiting years for a final "Yes/No."

NICE Readiness: Management noted they are already preparing the "cost-effectiveness" data for NICE. This is crucial because a drug can be approved but if it’s too expensive, the stock won't move because no one will buy it. The analyst believes the "hospitalization cost savings" (keeping patients out of the ER) will make the drug look cheap to the UK government.

Data Durability: They highlighted that some patients in the trial are now 8+ years post-diagnosis. This "long tail" of survivors is the strongest argument for a $1.00+ valuation, as it suggests a "functional cure" for a small percentage of patients.

Conservative Timelines: While the $1.00 price target is high, the analyst’s timeline (commercial launch in 2027) is actually quite conservative. This suggests they aren't "pumping" the stock for a quick gain, but looking at the long-term industrial value.

[DrHigh]

company now owns > .5% so my guess at least 10+ million shares

[LessIsMore]

How do you know this is a paid report?

Anyone who has taken the time to actually read the report will see this in the disclaimer section.

The author, First Berlin, or a company associated with First Berlin reached an agreement with the Northwest Biotherapeutics Inc. for preparation of a financial analysis for which remuneration is owed.

First Berlin notes that is has concluded a contract with the issuer to prepare financial analyses and is paid for that by the issuer.

First Berlin F.S.B. Investment-Beratungsgesellschaft mbH (hereafter FBIB), a company of the First Berlin Group, holds a stake
of under 0.5% of the shares in the company which has been covered in this analysis