I'm not sure we will see an anticipatory run up actually. I asked Gemini to conduct some research into whether there was any evidence of any front running on any of the ten most recent MHRA marketing approval announcements. The answer came back that there is none and apparently the MHRA manage to keep leaks under strict control. So if folk are expecting a run prior to MA then I don’t think it’s gonna happen:
"Based on the forensic evidence gathered from the ten most recent significant marketing authorisations spanning July 2025 to January 2026, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) appears to be running an exceptionally "tight ship."
There is no statistical evidence of systematic front running or information leakage. Where share price movements were observed in the week prior to approvals they were consistently explainable by:
Global Precedence: Prior FDA/EMA approvals de-risking the asset (The IRP effect).
Public Disclosures: Clinical data presentations at conferences.
Corporate Finance: Buybacks and M&A.
Crucially, in the high-stakes scenario of a "World First" approval—where the incentive to leak is highest—the agency's embargoes held firm, resulting in genuine market surprise upon publication. For investors and stakeholders, this confirms that the MHRA’s transition to a sovereign regulator has not come at the cost of operational security. The agency has successfully integrated into the global regulatory ecosystem in a way that minimises arbitrage opportunities while maintaining the integrity of its independent decision-making process. The "unusual" movements in UK pharma stocks are, almost without exception, echoes of thunder from across the Atlantic, rather than whispers from Canary Wharf."
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