Replies to post #567909 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[blackhawks]

What kind of people deny climate change?

No surprises here. But, this is the at the very end of the analysis.

- Communication that treats all skeptics as stupid or evil tends to backfire; evidence-based outreach works better when it acknowledges identity, values, and concerns.

Uh, 'evidence-based outreach works better when....' flies in the face of all that preceded that overly optimistic statement and rings hollow. Especially in light of this...... Areas with lower average education levels and lower COVID-19 vaccination rates (proxies for general mistrust in science) tend to have more deniers.

Proxies for 'stupid' are not fertile ground for evidence based outreach, particularly when such outreach elicits 'that's what the elites want you to think'.

Many different kinds of people deny climate change, but research shows some clear patterns in demographics, politics, and psychology. [pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11076737/)

## Main demographic patterns

- In the United States, about 12–15% of adults fully deny that climate change is real. [record.umich](https://record.umich.edu/articles/nearly-15-of-americans-deny-climate-change-study-finds/)

- Denial is more common in the central and southern states (for example Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, and North Dakota) than on the East and West Coasts. [nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-50591-6)

- Areas with lower average education levels and lower COVID-19 vaccination rates (proxies for general mistrust in science) tend to have more deniers. [nature](https://www.nature.co m/articles/s41598-023-50591-6)

## Political and ideological factors

- The strongest and most consistent predictor of denying climate change is **political** ideology: people who are more conservative or right-wing are significantly more likely to deny human-caused warming. [sciencedirect](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378021002193)

- In the U.S., places with a high share of Republican voters show the highest concentration of deniers. [journals.plos](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?type=printable&id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0334544)

- Climate denial is often linked to broader anti-environmental attitudes, opposition to government regulation, and alliances with fossil-fuel interests, especially on the far right. [sciencedirect](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378021002193)

## Psychological and personality traits

- Studies find that denial is associated with feelings of loss of control, uncertainty, and threats to identity or self-esteem when confronted with an issue as large and scary as climate change. [pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11076737/)

- Climate change denial correlates with ideological traits like Right-Wing Authoritarianism and Social Dominance Orientation (preference for group hierarchies and inequality). [sciencedirect]
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494424000501)

- Some research reports small links between climate skepticism and “dark” personality traits (narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy), while acceptance of climate science is more associated with traits like agreeableness and honesty–humility; these effects are present but not very strong. [cbc](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/personality-plays-a-role-in-whether-you-believe-in-climate-change-study-finds-1.7570204)

## Social and belief-system factors

- People who distrust scientists and experts, endorse conspiracy theories, or hold strong populist attitudes are more likely to believe climate change is a hoax or part of a conspiracy. [misinforeview.hks.harvard]
(https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/understanding-climate-change-conspiracy-beliefs-a-comparative-outlook/)

- Younger right-wing individuals with high distrust of elites can be especially prone to climate conspiracy beliefs in some countries. [misinforeview.hks.harvard](https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/understanding-climate-change-conspiracy-beliefs-a-comparative-outlook/)

- Living in regions whose economies are heavily dependent on fossil fuels or other carbon-intensive industries is also associated with higher rates of denial. [journals.plos](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?type=printable&id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0334544)

## Important caveats

- These are statistical patterns, not a checklist; many conservatives accept climate science, and some liberals are skeptical. [sciencedirect](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001691822002906)

- Personality and ideology explain some variance, but they do not perfectly predict any one person’s views, and correlations are often moderate or small. [cbc](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/personality-plays-a-role-in-whether-you-believe-in-climate-change-study-finds-1.7570204)

- Communication that treats all skeptics as stupid or evil tends to backfire; evidence-based outreach works better when it acknowledges identity, values, and concerns. [pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11076737/)

Perplexity.ai

[DesertDrifter]

While the snowpacks are down,

For the first time in years, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no drought conditions across California — one of several indicators reflecting the state's improved water outlook.Jan 15, 2026

the atmospheric rivers have deluged us with rain. Most reservoirs are full to optimal capacity for this time of year. Not enough yet to recharge aquifers, to be sure, but progress is progress. Warm rains have predominated... I live at 5000 feet and we have received no more than a skiff of snow, it has all been rain. Global warming has caused more water to be evaporated in the Pacific Ocean, and the water laden air has to drop its load somewhere. Through the vagaries of circumpolar whorl, arctic air slides down the continent, giving the east a deep freeze, but the dense air holds warmer air masses in the west off, so we enjoy a warm winter.

I have only burned half as much firewood as a typical year, which is my measure of trend. Getting most of our moisture as rain is not optimal for summer flows, but I can predict we will have a major bloom of wildflowers this year.

Troubling is the absence of many bird species that I have been tracking for years, and a dearth of pollinator insects, but I am not sure the climate turbulence is the chief culprit. While my feeder normally attracts about 25 species of natives and migratories, this year it is down to no finch species, a few Oregon juncos and the resident scrub jays, with flocks of English sparrows having replaced them. No buntings, crossbills, tanagers, or other narrow-niche birds, just a few pesky generalists, mostly immigrants from europe.