Tornado Alley (PROG)

[blackhawks]

What kind of people deny climate change?

No surprises here. But, this is the at the very end of the analysis.

- Communication that treats all skeptics as stupid or evil tends to backfire; evidence-based outreach works better when it acknowledges identity, values, and concerns.

Uh, 'evidence-based outreach works better when....' flies in the face of all that preceded that overly optimistic statement and rings hollow. Especially in light of this...... Areas with lower average education levels and lower COVID-19 vaccination rates (proxies for general mistrust in science) tend to have more deniers.

Proxies for 'stupid' are not fertile ground for evidence based outreach, particularly when such outreach elicits 'that's what the elites want you to think'.

Many different kinds of people deny climate change, but research shows some clear patterns in demographics, politics, and psychology. [pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11076737/)

## Main demographic patterns

- In the United States, about 12–15% of adults fully deny that climate change is real. [record.umich](https://record.umich.edu/articles/nearly-15-of-americans-deny-climate-change-study-finds/)

- Denial is more common in the central and southern states (for example Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, and North Dakota) than on the East and West Coasts. [nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-50591-6)

- Areas with lower average education levels and lower COVID-19 vaccination rates (proxies for general mistrust in science) tend to have more deniers. [nature](https://www.nature.co m/articles/s41598-023-50591-6)

## Political and ideological factors

- The strongest and most consistent predictor of denying climate change is **political** ideology: people who are more conservative or right-wing are significantly more likely to deny human-caused warming. [sciencedirect](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378021002193)

- In the U.S., places with a high share of Republican voters show the highest concentration of deniers. [journals.plos](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?type=printable&id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0334544)

- Climate denial is often linked to broader anti-environmental attitudes, opposition to government regulation, and alliances with fossil-fuel interests, especially on the far right. [sciencedirect](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378021002193)

## Psychological and personality traits

- Studies find that denial is associated with feelings of loss of control, uncertainty, and threats to identity or self-esteem when confronted with an issue as large and scary as climate change. [pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11076737/)

- Climate change denial correlates with ideological traits like Right-Wing Authoritarianism and Social Dominance Orientation (preference for group hierarchies and inequality). [sciencedirect]
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494424000501)

- Some research reports small links between climate skepticism and “dark” personality traits (narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy), while acceptance of climate science is more associated with traits like agreeableness and honesty–humility; these effects are present but not very strong. [cbc](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/personality-plays-a-role-in-whether-you-believe-in-climate-change-study-finds-1.7570204)

## Social and belief-system factors

- People who distrust scientists and experts, endorse conspiracy theories, or hold strong populist attitudes are more likely to believe climate change is a hoax or part of a conspiracy. [misinforeview.hks.harvard]
(https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/understanding-climate-change-conspiracy-beliefs-a-comparative-outlook/)

- Younger right-wing individuals with high distrust of elites can be especially prone to climate conspiracy beliefs in some countries. [misinforeview.hks.harvard](https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/understanding-climate-change-conspiracy-beliefs-a-comparative-outlook/)

- Living in regions whose economies are heavily dependent on fossil fuels or other carbon-intensive industries is also associated with higher rates of denial. [journals.plos](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?type=printable&id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0334544)

## Important caveats

- These are statistical patterns, not a checklist; many conservatives accept climate science, and some liberals are skeptical. [sciencedirect](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001691822002906)

- Personality and ideology explain some variance, but they do not perfectly predict any one person’s views, and correlations are often moderate or small. [cbc](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/personality-plays-a-role-in-whether-you-believe-in-climate-change-study-finds-1.7570204)

- Communication that treats all skeptics as stupid or evil tends to backfire; evidence-based outreach works better when it acknowledges identity, values, and concerns. [pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11076737/)

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