I have been thinking about the astronomical numbers that the Lumentum CEO threw in that interview, and I think that it can be very illustrative to quote some parts of it in order to have a picture of what the co-packaged optics revolution will mean
"So everyone is looking for ways to save energy. An interesting phenomenon is the so-called co-packaged optics, where essentially the transceiver is made superfluous and the optical engine is placed directly next to the switch or the server. So, you have nothing that can be plugged in."
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"And now you basically have a system, a very reliable system, in which you eliminate this transceiver and your optical engine directly next to the switch, the server chip, the GPU or whatever you can place. That's a big revolution that is ahead of us. It brings the optics industry, which in the telecommunications era with which we started the conversation, was measured with thousands of copies into the hundreds of thousands, as we measure these transceivers today in millions.
So it's a big deal, Dave, when you talk about the revolution of co-packaged optics. The Holy Grail is now in the rack itself, because we can replace all the copper with a kind of optical engine. We can already see how this co-packaged optics occurs and replaces connections from the switch, even from a top-of-rack switch to the rack.
But what we can actually foresee is a huge wave of optical connections in the rack itself. We call it scale-up, which does not occur in two-digit millions, but in units of 100 million times and fundamentally changes this industry. You are used to it, order of magnitude from thousands to now two-digit millions, if not even 100 million times.
And you asked at the beginning what the biggest challenge is. The current biggest challenge for us is scaling up. How can we meet this demand and how can we replace our factories? How can we replace our works from thousands to millions, to two-digit millions, or even 100 million times? This is a huge challenge and we have to tackle it now, looking at the revolution that will come in two or three years."