Replies to post #156 on Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)

[Whalatane]

Maybe but from what I've read theres been some major forced selling / margin calls , once Bitcoin dropped below 92K.
Traders are hoping that the $82K-$85 K is the new base ...otherwise its a test of the April lows .
The crypto fear and greed index is at 2022 lows ...so I added a little IREN when it got close to $40 , may add CIFR next week.

The back drop for the miners switching to AI data centers is that they still relying on bitcoin income to help finance the transition.
So they are currently hurt by both a drop in the hash rate ( what they make producing the bitcoin ) and what they can sell it for ...a double negative.
CIFR hold 1500 bitcoin ...so the drop in value certainly hurts them . IREN sells theirs as soon as they produce it

What I need to do is spend some time on when these Co's will start generating more $ from the data centers they are building out . Definitely happening for IREN in 2026 , need to chk on WIFR
By the way ...some more DD on depreciation of these GPU's . Now think Chanos has it wrong .
Will be big for NVDA if US allows sales to China to resume ...and Chinese govt OK's purchases.

Kiwi

[Whalatane]

After some more DD ...will add some CIFR next week ...especially on any drop in Bitcoin.
They'll have $750m a yr revenue coming from AWS and Fuildstack by end of 2026 provided they build out Black Pearl phase 2 for AI ...not bitcoin ...which I expect them to do .
Less risk then IREN and further along in their transition to AI centers than WULF
Kiwi

[Whalatane]

More DD on CIFR
1) has signed contracts ...Fluidstack backed by Google and AWS ( Amazon )
2) Power is already secured at Black Pearl and recently expanded sites
3) Ramp begins immediately in 2026 with revenue stream up to at least $750m a yr rate by EOY 2026

Near term risk ..price of the 1500 bitcoin they hold and bitcoin income

Cipher Mining shares surge after company lands $830 million AI hosting deal
November 20 2025 - 10:52AM

Cipher Mining Inc. (NASDAQ:CIFR) saw its stock jump 12% on Thursday after unveiling a major 10-year AI hosting agreement with Fluidstack, locking in roughly $830 million in contracted revenue.

Under the new deal, Cipher will supply an additional 39 MW of critical IT load—supported by up to 56 MW of gross capacity—at its Barber Lake facility in Colorado City, Texas. With this expansion, Fluidstack is slated to lease the entire 300 MW of capacity available at Barber Lake.

The contract also includes two optional five-year extensions. If exercised, those add-ons would raise total contracted revenue tied to this agreement to around $2.0 billion, and lift the total value of the broader partnership to approximately $9.0 billion.

In a significant show of support, Google agreed to backstop an additional $333 million of Fluidstack’s lease commitments to facilitate project-related lending. This boosts Google’s total backstop across its partnership with Fluidstack and Cipher to $1.73 billion.

To fund the build-out, Cipher plans to rely on project financing along with about $118 million in additional equity. The company estimates development costs of roughly $9–$10 million per MW of critical IT load and anticipates Net Operating Income margins in the 85%–90% range for the site.

Kiwi

[Whalatane]

Cipher Mining Shares Rise After JPMorgan Upgrade
MT Newswires · Nov-24-2025 11:32 AM ET
11:32 AM EST, 11/24/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Cipher Mining (CIFR.NaE) shares were up nearly 17% in recent Monday trading after JPMorgan upgraded the data center construction and operations company's stock to overweight from neutral and raised its price target to $18 from $12.

Kiwi