Also for those interested: Here are some revised back of the number estimates should another Alzheimer's trial be required.
Assumptions: Trial cost: $300 million over 36-48 months, or around $7.5mm per month. Anavex will dilute 90mm shares @ $2.25/share if it hasn't already, so that $200 million + the $100 million in the bank should be able to cover the cost of the Alzheimer's trial.
For the EU: 3mm people; $6500/year (I read this is the most that is feasible for the majority of countries); 185mm shares outstanding; 18% net income; 20x P/E
So: 3mm x $6500 x .18 / 185mm x 20 = $380/share
Or, assume a 3x sales price: It's around $315/share.
The point is there is still value to be unlocked here even with massive dilution and lost opportunity cost. Whether someone has the patience to wait and see how this plays out, remains to be seen, but if I thought I had a lotto ticket and they told me that the drawing got pushed back from January '26 to January '29, and if I didn't need the money now, I probably wouldn't sell it for $3. I'd put it in the safe and forget about it for a while.
Best of luck. I'll be lurking from time to time.
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