Calculation of Anavex' fair market value: I think using J&J and Pfizer P/E ratios to calculate a potential share price may be an erroneous way to derive company market cap/value. Anavex will be a one or two drug company at that juncture. PFE and JNJ have wide product lines and JNJ also sells much more than drugs.
As such, I would calculate a fair value based on top line sales....meaning retail, not the 25-30% Anavex would get if they use BP to partner for sales and distribution. 6X top line sales is the average sales price. Furthermore, if Anavex were to ramp up sales fast and furiously almost certainly a BP company such as Merck, Pfizer whose patents are soon to dwindle, etc. would make a generous offer for the entire company.
While first oral medicine out of the gate has a massive advantage....and I see at least a two year head start, other oral meds such as Cognition Therapeutics med that targets P Tau 217 very well could be a competitor. I know you mentioned the fact that one can reduce their estimation of sales as compared to your forecasts. I think the intial patients will of course be happy to take Blarcamesine but in five years time as new patients are identified their product may have lower market share should competitors deliver worthwhile drugs with efficacy, even if they target specific ALZ populations. No matter, the ride should be exciting and rewarding for all shareholders. Good write up.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
