Replies to post #503653 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[crescentmotor]

The outcome of the P2b/3 ended up looking more like a P2 trial

Given your assessment of the trial not being a successful Phase 3 with failure to meet all protocol endpoints and analysis full of post-trial data mining, kudos will go to Doc328 in the case of rejection, who alone has consistently continued to give odds for approval at less than 5%. Your 75% chance of conditional approval with the requirement for an additional confirmatory P3 trial seems to need some serious reconsideration and downward adjustment to a percentage well below 50%.