Replies to post #503424 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Kentucky123]

I have no idea where Mayo came up with conditional approval unless he got it from the company. No a good look to have that kind of leak.

Have to agree with your assessment.

[AlchemicalVoyager13]

About 10% of EMA approvals are CMA. Of that 6 of 10 are oncology. That leaves, what, 4% or 1 in 25 odds?? I have no idea why you are so, so concerned about a CMA when we have 3-4 years OLE data that is very positive. Chill out.

[boi568]

You conclude, "I do not think there will be much share price appreciation if CMA is the outcome."

So I asked ChatGTP,

"Can you find examples, or better yet stats, on the number of EMA CMA approvals that subsequently led to a drug conditionally approved being pulled off the EU market?"

The heart of its answer was "Short answer: revocations are **very rare**. Examples exist [ . . . ] and using public EMA / literature counts you get **only a small handful** of CMAs subsequently pulled from the EU market — roughly **3 of ~89 CMAs** as of end-2023 (˜**3.4%**)."

Further, even a CMA would boost the odds of an FDA approval, whether through the CNPV or otherwise. I think you are being overly pessimistic regarding how the share price would react to a conditional approval.

[notbrad]

I do not think there will be much share price appreciation if CMA is the outcome.

This made me laugh out aloud :)
Thanks for your very funny joke.

[Boopka]

You needed to give a little more color with your response. Yes, the shorts will use the CMA to justify a hit piece. I can see that coming. However, knowing that revenues will begin shortly and climb considerably, some might use a dip to buy more. It is all in understanding the big picture and the true profit potential. The sp will eventually rise and keep rising imo.