Current market cap is ~USD800m and the undeniable market for blarcasemine that will definitely be achieved in the EU alone is more than4 $2b per year. Even if it took 4 years to get to $2b in annual sales for AD in the EU alone, that still would make AVXL market cap of $5b upon approval easily supportable. Presumably that would make FDA approval more likely and if they indeed submit an NDA by YE then I think more than $5b is justfied.
When the short term (less than 6 months return) is greater than 5x then options seem unnecessary because the leverage is still very good without having to risk the time element.
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