Hi ND, Re: Adaptive AIM for Cryptocurrency...............
1) With everything about electronic money being relatively 'new' it's hard to develop a deep database for testing purposes. As an AIM user, I've usually expected to own a position and manage it over many years or even into decades. What I've learned since 1988 about AIM and its personality suggests we need to be match makers between AIM and its intended inventory. I don't know enough about Crypto and its personality to offer much of a suggestion as to optimizing AIM. Sorry!
2) 200 day history is an extremely short time frame for a long term investor. AIM is meant for use over far greater time frames. Generally on my most volatile stocks, I still only expect 0 to maybe 6 trades per year with common stocks and ETFs.
3) My view is there are three objectives for investors: A) Asset Price Appreciation over Time, B) Dividend Capture over Time, and C) Profitable Volatility Capture over Time. It's up to us individually to pick investments that satisfy from one to all three of those objectives. Emphasis as to what is most important to us is a very personal thing. Mr. Lichello's book leads many to ignore A and B and concentrate on "C." After all these years, I consider "C" as as enhancement to managing holdings who's goals are "A" and/or "B."
4) Quite some time ago, one of the AIM users decided to shrink the "hold zone" of AIM on a tech stock to a very small value. It might have been just 1% or 2%. He said, "It's in an IRA, so I don't have to worry about capital gain calculations on lots of trades." He proceeded to manage this holding with a massive amount of frequent AIM directed trades. His SAFE was maybe zero and the minimums trading were as stated, 1% to 2% of portfolio value. Eventually, his attempt failed as it emphasized trading over trend and fundamental analysis. His portfolio was whiplashed by trades and his cash reserve was whittled away because of a medium term downtrend. His cash was gone well before a market turning point was reached. His method might have worked fine in a cyclical upward trend, but it defeated him in a cyclical market downtrend.
I apologize for not being able to address your thoughts more directly. I just never took the time to study the world of crypto other than to compare it to national currencies over time. I like the idea of an adaptive system, but I've chosen to be more of the "set and forget" type of AIM user.
Please keep the Board informed of your efforts here. I know there are others who will be interested in your progress.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
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