If track records were a predictor you could be right. I think you need to add the new external and internal evidence since 2023: recent industry developments, company and organizational developments and communications ,
That new information gives a much better predictive ability. Risks remain, but Nvidia’s and TSMC’s to co packaged optics and micro ring resonators for 200G per lane using PAM4 to increase bandwidth and lower power, plays nicely into Lightwave strength ( and Polariton MRR’s) of 400G and higher bandwidth, low power and small form factor solving inherent MRR’s thermal compensation requirements due to wavelength drift.