If the double top confirms, retracement could be ~$6 without catalysts before Oct/Nov. But the only real way to lose big is if both EMA rejects AD and Schizo fails — even then, the floor could be ~$4 (cash/raised + voucher). The 2 combined binary events in Oct/Nov improve the odds that the price is higher if one succeeds: $10+ floor with Schizo success, and $50+ if both hit. Oct/Nov is the pivot.
What's your estimate of Schizo trial success probability? CGPT put it around 30–35%, above the historical psychiatry average (~20–25%)
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