Agricultural equipment comprises about 70% of DE’s non-financial revenue, and the large-ag market has been in a serious funk. DE now projects that FY2026 will mark the bottom of the large-ag cycle. DE expects modest FY2026 uptrends in its small-ag and construction segments, but not enough to offset the decline in the large-ag segment.
Consequently, DE today issued guidance for FY2026 profit of $4.0-4.75B, -6% to -20% versus FY2025 actual profit of $5.03B (and well below Wall Street’s consensus of $5.3B). The FY2026 guidance includes an expected $1.2B pre-tax headwind from tariffs, about double the amount in FY2025.
On a GAAP basis, the above FY2026 guidance equates to EPS of $15.38-$18.27 (based on 260M diluted shares), down from FY2025’s actual $18.50.
At the current share price (~$483 as I’m typing), the FY2026 guidance equates to a P/E range of ~26-31x.
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