Replies to post #438027 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[alm2]

Rose suspect Amarin would withdraw old but generics persist with old as alternative less costly? Option for insurers to continue with - issue also of stock being carried by Amarin - how long until used up ? And throw another thought it - use it up as a cheaper option than all the generics in attempt to wipe them out of the market
Lots of ifs
Alm

[JRoon71]

RMB, I tend to agree with alm2.

As far as your question, my belief has always been that when they introduce Vascepa 2.0, they also launch an authorized generic under the MARINE indication only.

This accomplishes two things:
1. Introduces better/cheaper/simpler formulation for CVD. With lower pricing and better effectiveness, it is more likely to get on insurance formularies.
2. The AG could undercut the other generics on price, and squeeze them out of the MARINE indication market. This also helps prevent the generics from continuing to encroach on the REDUCE-It indication, even with a new formulation.

Obviously, the lawsuit would be icing on the cake, but there is no telling when/if it will resolve in our favor.

Regardless, this is still going to be a multi-year process, as both the lawsuit and the new formulation are going to take time to come to fruition. It is possible that Sarissa sells the company prior to those resolving, but it would seem to me that if they want top dollar, it would be tough for a BP company to pay a large premium with so much risk still hanging out there (risk, meaning the risk of the lawsuit not going in our favor, or taking too long, and/or the new formulation not gaining the patents and/or FDA approval in a timely manner).

BP's love certainty in deals, and hate risk. So any way that Amarin can de-risk prior to a sale would add much greater multiples to the deal.