Replies to post #255842 on Biotech Values

[Mufaso]

An excellent estimate of WL for VK2735 was done by GilaMonstrum on X. His speculation is based upon getting a bioavailability estimate of 1.25% from Ph1 oral and using Ph2 SC WL results from 13wks. FYI- I did something using the same methodology (but not using sophisticated math) on my own (not publicly posted) and his results came within the range that I came up with. I will also will mention that Brian Lian tried to set expectations for 8% for the ORAL over 13 wks when speaking with analysts as I recall. (He is typically under promises and over delivers).

Be careful when looking at this info. LLY thought the Orfor data would be better and look what happened there. We simply don't know till results are released. While I'm personally very confident the ORAL will have great tolerability, I'm expecting that the WL results will also be great with a lower confidence level. VKTX and all stocks in the diabesity area are volatile with emerging Bios there especially risky.

MY Speculative WL prediction for VENTURE Oral trial $VKTX

The 30 mg QD oral VK2735 delivers systemic exposure equivalent to 2.5 mg QW sub q VK2735, while 90 mg QD corresponds to 7.5 mg QW and 120 mg QD aligns with 10 mg QW. However, the oral regimens escalate more quickly, with… pic.twitter.com/q4mmnwcqmk

— Noumena Analysis (@GilaMonstrum) June 8, 2025

[vinmantoo]

I've already posted here that I expect ORAL tolerability to be "Best In Class" and that WL will be "Stellar." (see #msg-176446318 ) If you are looking for a WL number estimate, I will say that it will be double digit at the highest dose of 120 mg approaching the ph2 SC trial results of 13% over 13 wks. (pure SPECULATION on my part- do your own DD as I could be off). Having said that, the more important results will be the 60 mg dose and the 90mg "maintenance" dose in my view (the one that steps up to 90mg and comes down to 30mg). Both of these dosing schemes would be competitive in an induction setting if they were to get close to double digit WL using my cost estimates on API (which I have yet to post).

Mufaso,

Thanks for the last posts on VKTX. One thing to consider, at least down the road, is that the oral formulation requires far more VK2735 than subcutaneous. That means VKTX will have to ramp up production. It won't affect my investment views now, but is something to consider well down the road, assuming of course the oral formulation does the trick.

[Fred Kadiddlehopper]

The 30mg, 60mg and 90mg doses do hit your targets but it seems tolerability is not as good as expected?