There are points of divergence between the two including
1. Market Maturity. The global AI market is much bigger—nearly $400 billion versus under $3 billion for photonics in 2025. While photonics’ growth rate is enormous, the industry is at a smaller base and addresses more specialized applications (for now).
2. Adoption Curve. AI adoption in 2018–2020 was powered by software, cloud computing, and “off-the-shelf” tools, lowering entry barriers. Photonics, by nature, demands more hardware investment and longer cycles for ecosystem scaling.
3. Risk and Capital Intensity. Hardware-centric sectors like photonics often require higher upfront and ongoing capital for manufacturing and integration, posing greater risk than asset-light AI software investments.