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WorstLuck

07/29/25 12:31 PM

#255758 RE: dewophile #255757

The deal suggests a low probability of success



Not disagreeing. It's a two year trial fwiw. OTOH, there are a number of other inputs to factor when evaluating a deal, as you know. The milestone payments are also a negligible factor if triggered and the drug could still be profitable with sales numbers that don't trigger the milestones.

That wasn't the point of the exercise, but have fun with it.
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WorstLuck

07/29/25 1:09 PM

#255759 RE: dewophile #255757

the cost of a phase 3 is also a factor when evaluating a deal as you know.



https://www.durect.com/2024/09/durect-corporation-announces-phase-3-registrational-trial-design-for-larsucosterol-in-alcohol-associated-hepatitis/

The cost was thought to be around 20M in industry reports. Which, one might argue, means BHC is really rolling the dice here if costs to approval are in the 100M range.

Have fun with that too!