Biotech Values

[WorstLuck]

The deal suggests a low probability of success

Not disagreeing. It's a two year trial fwiw. OTOH, there are a number of other inputs to factor when evaluating a deal, as you know. The milestone payments are also a negligible factor if triggered and the drug could still be profitable with sales numbers that don't trigger the milestones.

That wasn't the point of the exercise, but have fun with it.