Replies to post #255755 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

The deal suggests a low probability of success
Here is the phase 2b data

https://www.durect.com/2023/11/durect-corporation-announces-topline-results-from-phase-2b-ahfirm-trial-of-larsucosterol-in-alcohol-associated-hepatitis-with-promising-effect-on-mortality/

Note that while there was a numerical trend in mortality favoring treatment, there was no dose response. Also the treatment arms had more patients who received transplants. In fact the "Alive and transplant free" endpoint showed no difference between PBO and treatment
If this is the data that got them BTD then BTD is not what it used to be (the unmet need may have factored in). I'm also not sure how large a study you need with a mortality endpoint, but the cost of a phase 3 is also a factor when evaluating a deal as you know.