Orlando, that's definitely an interesting method for investing in NAIL. It appears to work very well with highly volatile ETFs such as NAIL.
I'm generally familiar with the 15/30 EMA strategy, but I haven't used it nor have I backtested it. I will compare your results to my AIM Preemptive method using your start date until closing price yesterday. I realize your test shares are still invested, but in that respect so are my AIM test shares.
It would be interesting if we both continue tracking our respective methods on this NAIL test so we can continue to post results for others. Would you agree to that? If so, you would just need to post your trades for the currently owned shares and thereafter. I'll update my table with your values and update my AIM comparison.
I did notice a few issues with your posted data. It appears you're using the closing price for running your test. However, some of your dates are a bit off.
1. The $106.40 sell price on 4/15/24 is the closing price for 4/16/24. 2. The $105.93 sell price on 5/21/24 is the closing price for 5/22/24. 3. The $124.46 buy price on 7/16/24 is the closing price for 7/17/24. 4. The $142.14 sell price on 10/25/24 is the closing price for 10/28/24. 5. The $61.46 buy price on 7/1/25 is the closing price for 7/2/24.
I corrected the respective dates in my table to align with the closing price dates for the prices you posted. This doesn't impact your calculations.
There is one error that may affect your calculations. You posted buying shares on 5/17/24 at $117.23. This price was not in the trading range from 5/15/24 through 5/20/24. However, the closing price on 5/20/24 was $117.73. I believe this was your actual price and you entered the wrong value in your test, or in your post, or both. You may want to check and recalculate your test from that point forward if it's incorrect in your test.
I ran my AIM Preemptive method with standard 10/10/10% AIM parameters. Since starting price was at the low end of the 52-week price range, I selected 80% equity position to start. This is consistent with how I've done all of my backtesting. It appears your method includes dividends paid during periods you held shares. My AIM results includes dividends reinvested, and interest on the cash portion, calculated using the average return of the Fidelity SPAXX money market fund over the period, also consistent with my backtest results.
The AIM model was tracking fairly close through the 10/28/24 exit date, with a sizable portion of the total portfolio in cash. The significant drawdown that occurred in the last few months dropped the value of AIM shares and used up much of the AIM cash. It will be interesting to continue this comparison to see what happens when the price recovers.
Whatever the future updates reveal, it appears the 15/30 EMA Strategy is an excellent strategy for highly volatile ETFs like NAIL. You might also be interested in testing this strategy on BITU, BITX and SOXL. The volatility (Std Dev) I have recorded for NAIL is 98%. These other 3 range from 102–108%, the highest leveraged ETFs I've tested.
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