Replies to post #494958 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[frrol]

Also good post.

[12x]

Very disappointed in this $150M ATM offering. This is especially frustrating because:

We’re days to weeks away from the CHMP clock restart, which would eliminate most MAA withdrawal risk.

The CHMP decision is likely October–November, the biggest binary event in AVXL’s history.

The last offering was at $21 for $50M—so why dilute now at a much lower price?

This move mirrors what Prilenia did: raise capital after clearing Day 120, only to be rejected months later. It gives the appearance that management lacks confidence in CHMP approval—or at least wants to hedge against rejection.

Yes, it's technically “flexible” (ATM, not a firm offering), but the signal is clear:
They’re willing to dilute heavily before any positive catalyst lands.

If they believed strongly in approval and a re-rating to $25–$30+, they'd wait.

This was poorly timed and damaging to long-term shareholders. It erodes trust—especially after strong Phase IIb/III data and the narrative that AVXL is “fully funded.” If you’re going to pull a Prilenia, at least be transparent about it.

[Steady_T]

Here are some details on the deal that Prilenia entered into for its P2 drug. I would hope that Anavex wouldn't enter into a deal anywhere close to these terms.

Under the terms of the agreement, Prilenia will receive an upfront payment of approximately €80 million plus up to €45 million in near-term development, regulatory, and commercial milestones. The total deal is valued at up to approximately €500 million in upfront and total milestone payments. In addition, Prilenia will receive tiered double-digit royalties on net sales. Prilenia and Ferrer have agreed to jointly develop and fund the expansion of pridopidine in the territory for additional indications beyond HD. Prilenia will retain full rights to pridopidine in other major markets, including North America, Japan and Asia Pacific.

Anavex shouldn't enter in to any marketing deal until 2-73 is approved. And, the terms should be many times more favorable to Anavex than the deal that Prilenia entered into. Missling has managed the finances so that any agreements will be on very much better terms.