Replies to post #776087 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[FeMike]

My point of view is the valuation does not have to be at current market price. If the combo trial with keytruda was as big a success as rumored, couldn't evaluation take into account what projected future sales could be.

Absolutely, and it definitely is. We might just be misunderstanding each other.

The deal is based off of the valuation, it doesn't really matter what the share price is.

The only thing the share price does is simplify the valuation into easy to understand numbers.

So yes, when valuing NWBO for a buyout you'd absolutely consider pipeline technology like direct and projected applications like combos. And yes, the resulting valuation would be well above current market valuation (current market share price * outstanding shares). The trouble comes, as you have already alluded to, in bridging the premium gap between the two values. We're currently trading at a <$400M market cap. No biotech could do a deal with us right now for $4B even if they wanted to, their shareholders wouldn't allow it.

Also, it would make sense then for why bashers would be trying to bring the value down, but wouldnt that be a stock manipulation violation?

Typically, if a buyout is happening, there is probably some manipulation/insider trading/violations happening.

Let's say a BP did want to buy us out for $4B after the approval. You'd see a marketing campaign start up to drive the price up. You'd also see institutional buying (huh, how did they know to start buying now?!) to help drive the price up. Those factors would push the market cap up to around $2B, then the purchasing company would be able to announce the acquisition at a premium of 100% instead of a premium of 900%. It's all about perception (and helping out the insiders).