Replies to post #775047 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Doc logic]

NotSure2,

Your concerns about initial limits on access I believe are warranted and well laid out. I would only counter that the IFRs point to all solid tumor cancer and that will push the limits you mention back up towards some part of max spending for all solid tumor cancers. I said before and I’ll say again that the IFR access scheme seems to be pointed to a very personalized medicine plan. I believe patients will have access based on evidence that points to those who will benefit most as you suggest with at least initial screening limits or have no other options. Evidence from Specials access by many cancer types will likely be the basis for decision making. Following up the IFRs will be like a Phase 4 trial with label expansion approved for specific situations after documented evidence of treatment effect is gathered. This provides greater access but controlled such that the budget isn’t busted and doesn’t wipe out other treatments or over use murcidencel all at once but should balance the need for many of them over time which will create an optimized use of funding. Best wishes.

[Barunuuk]

LOL So many incorrect shorts; Easily $100 a share if not more....

1) Not sure what you are on about. DCVax is approved in the NIH expensive drug list (you know the one over $30K). So that completely destroys your Pricing Pressure argument
2) Secondly, DCVax would not be paid out of an annual drug budget but rather from the Overall NHS Medicines Budget, so you are incorrect there as well.
3) AGAIN DCVAX IS APPROVED ON THE NIH EXPENSIVE DRUG LIST...
4) DCVax is multi-dosed, however this would still be included in the ~ $100K to $150K cost. And since 14,000 GBM patients are treated every year, it does not matter that there are multi doses, it is included in the overall costs ~>$100K per patient being treated.
5) Phase 1A of Cambridge Sawston provides production capacity of 450 - 500 patients per year, however Phase 1B which should bring the production up to 2,000 or more vaccines per year. Even just at ~$125K a patient, this would provide ~$70Million up to $250M and this does not include any US manufacturing, nor any manufacturing in Germany.

GBM alone would see 14,000 cases in the US, 14,000 cases in Europe. Even if DCVax-L was only 50% of those markets, they could command ~ 14,000 (7,000 US,+ 7,000 EU) which would provide $2B Revenue JUST FOR NEWLY DIAGNOSED GBM ALONE!!!

Lets take a similar company, like Seagen (SGEN). Has an annual revenue of $2B and has a market cap of ~$40B giving it a share price of $230/share. With a $40B market cap, that would give you a share price of ~$30 to $40/share (depending on the amount of shares outstanding ~ 1.2 B. AND THAT ONLY INCLUDES GBM patients. If you include ALL CANCER Patients, it would be well above $250 a share. Remember, stocks are about emotion, and what is the forward looking price. Once MHRA approval, well the sky is the limit. But thats for trying to make sense of all this... LOL