Stocks just wrapped up the first half of 2025 at fresh all-time highs, a stark difference from the investing landscape seen at the beginning of the most recent quarter. Similar to the COVID crash and correction in September 2023, the recovery time for markets is speeding up to a span of weeks versus what used to take months. Buying the dip and a shift in sentiment even saw the S&P 500 (SP500) breach the 6,200 level on Monday, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) closed the session at record levels.
Making sense of it all: Wall Street is forward looking and things immediately started to rebound in the weeks following "Liberation Day" as it became clear that President Trump was using extreme tariff rates for negotiating leverage. Trade deals have already been inked with the U.K. and China, while more are likely to be announced in the coming days before a deadline of July 9. Meanwhile, a surge in tariff-induced inflation never took hold, while the "Big Beautiful Bill" set to be passed by Congress is poised to shower the U.S. economy and Corporate America with billions of dollars (don't forget consumer cash in the form of tax deductions).
Other forward-looking catalysts are also in the making. A hefty decline in the dollar (DXY) is setting up an earnings season with big beats for Big Tech, while a coming rate cut cycle is likely to take shape with President Trump handpicking a replacement for Fed Chair Jay Powell. As the administration wraps up efforts on tax and trade, it'll free up time in the latter half of the year to focus on deregulation, which should also be a boon for the markets.
Getting frothy or new horizons? With a lot of enthusiasm going around, more financial products are coming online to capture the money coming off the sidelines. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) reheated the dormant IPO market with a resounding success and is now looking at a national bank charter to establish the "First National Digital Currency Bank." Shares of Robinhood (HOOD) also hit an all-time high after introducing tokenized securities for private companies like OpenAI and SpaceX, as well as crypto perpetual futures and reintroducing staking.
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What else is happening...
Results from the latest Seeking Alpha Sentiment Survey.
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Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -1.2%. Hong Kong -0.9%. China +0.4%. India +0.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -0.5%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude +0.2% to $65.25. Gold +1.6% to $3,359.50. Bitcoin -0.9% to $106,522.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 4.20%.
On The Calendar
Companies reporting today include Greenbrier (GBX) and MSC Industrial Direct (MSM).
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