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$VSEE +117%+ #DDAmanda Video Analysis - #1 Stock Scanner/Screener
YTD Performance:
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📈Dow: +5.43%
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? Bitcoin: +45.27%
#YTDPerformance $SPY $QQQ $DIA $SPX #GOLD $GLD #Bitcoin $BTCUSD $IWM $RUT $USD
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If you missed, puts for 1000%+ playbookhttps://t.co/v5FcEkhxP2
— Option Millionaires (@OMillionaires) August 2, 2024
lurking in the hizzle< sdow dec 16c's paid $1 few days ago, woopty do!
Thank you $PANW https://t.co/KWKbe5nsph pic.twitter.com/tdp7NXUSME
— Option Millionaires (@OMillionaires) August 2, 2024
VIX still +12% 20.85
Pre-market rant if you missed --> https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-pre-market-rant-august-2nd-2024/
Morning Watch List : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/august-2nd-2024-watch-list/
Ooofff nasty
'R' word going to be ever where this weekend
UPB in da HIZZLE
Some rationale on adding the puts:
Some rationale on adding the puts:
Morning rant if you missed -> https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-pre-market-rant-august-1st-2024/
Citi opens 'positive catalyst watch' on BankUnited, ups price target to $42
Citi analyst Benjamin Gerlinger raised the firm's price target on BankUnited to $42 from $37 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares and is opening a "30-Day Positive Catalyst Watch" based on a potential capital deployment announcement supported by the organic rebuilding of capital, limited-to-modest loan growth outlook over the next couple quarters, and discounted share price compared to the tangible book value. The firm, which now assumes BankUnited repurchases $200M of shares between Q3 of 2024 and Q4 of 2025, notes that historically the company has announced $150M in buyback authorization at a time, which would amount to roughly 20c of 2025 EPS.
U.S. ISM manufacturing index slumped -1.7 points to 46.8 in July
U.S. ISM manufacturing index slumped -1.7 points to 46.8 in July, much weaker than forecast and will add to fears of a weakening economy. It follows the -0.2 point dip to 48.5 in June that is the lowest since October. The employment gauge tumbled -5.9 points to 43.4 after falling -1.8 points to 49.3 in June and is the lowest since June 2020. It has only been in expansion once, in May, since last September. Prices paid rose 0.8 ticks to 52.9 after dropping -4.9 points to 52.1 previously, with the latter is the weakest since December. New orders fell -1.9 points to 47.4 after bouncing 3.9 points to 49.3 in June and also is the lightest since December. Imports were little changed at 48.6 following the -2.6 tick decline to 48.5. New export orders edged up 0.2 points to 49.0 after falling -1.8 points to 48.8.
Wingstop price target raised to $423 from $407 at Truist
Truist raised the firm's price target on Wingstop to $423 from $407 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after its "big" SSS and adjusted EBITDA beat. The company continues to generate unprecedented SSS growth, driven by increased brand awareness and strong value perceptions, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Femsa to acquire Delek's retail operations for $385M
Fomento Economico Mexicano (FMX) announced that it has entered into definitive agreements with Delek US Holdings (DK), to acquire Delek's retail operations, consisting of 249 convenience stores located mainly in Texas, for a total amount of US$385 million dollars on a cash-free, debt-free basis, including the purchase of inventories.
08:48 EDT
Morning Watch List : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/august-1st-2024-watch-list/
Minnesota has become the second U.S. state where flying car regulations have gone into effect, following the lead of New Hampshire which passed similar legislation back in 2020. The new law will give private citizens the right to own "roadable aircraft," granting drivers the ability to become pilots of the same vehicle. No more traffic in everyday transportation might come with a big price tag for now, but it's still several decades before a regular family navigates life in the year 2062.
Orbit City: The so-called "Jetsons Law" allows airplane-to-car hybrids to register as motor vehicles, but instead of a traditional license plate, they will be permitted to use their tail number. Flying cars will also have to "take off and land from a suitable airfield," meaning no descents onto roadways or public highways (barring an emergency). While taking to the sky, the dual-purpose vehicles will have to abide by all FAA rules, which will become more important as more states adopt similar legislation.
"I think we're close to regulation at the federal level," said Jim Dukhovny, CEO of flying car company Alef Aeronautics. "Healthy market competition is good for the industry. Governments are starting to realize the economic and environmental advantages of flying cars." Doron Merdinger, CEO of a similar startup called Doroni Aerospace, also feels that it is "smart to get ahead of the curve and start planning how to integrate these vehicles into our daily lives."
The big leagues: Traditional planemakers, like Airbus (OTCPK:EADSY) and Boeing (BA), as well as commercial carriers like American Airlines (AAL), Delta (DAL) and United (UAL), are pouring millions into flying taxis, eVTOL prototypes and transportation partnerships. Other air mobility firms with skin in the game include Archer Aviation (ACHR), Eve Air Mobility (EVEX), Joby Aviation (JOBY), Lilium (LILM) and Vertical Aerospace (EVTL). Interestingly, most carmakers are sitting this one out, instead focusing most of their R&D on self-driving and autonomous features, as well as electric and hybrid technology.
Time to celebrate
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has confirmed that an interest rate cut "could be on the table as soon as September" if inflation and jobs continue to improve. Translation: Keep an eye on the incoming data. The odds of a 50 basis point rate cut also climbed after the comments, underscoring the market's confidence that the monetary policy easing cycle was imminent. Powell's shift in tone was enough for the Nasdaq (COMP:IND) and S&P 500 (SP500) to see their best day in over five months, while Treasury yields moved lower as traders snapped up bonds. (80 comments)
Tech is back
Following the rally, Meta (META) soared 7.2% AH to $509/share after its Q2 results easily beat expectations. More importantly, the tech giant reassured investors about underlying growth, especially in its core advertising business, despite massive spending on artificial intelligence. A major area of focus is "figuring out the right level of infra capacity to support training more and more advanced [AI] models," CEO Mark Zuckerberg said on an earnings call. "At this point, I'd rather risk building capacity before it is needed rather than too late, given the long lead times for spinning up new infra projects." (21 comments)
Oil on watch
U.S. crude futures (CL1:COM) jumped more than 4% on Wednesday after top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. It came just hours after Israel struck a senior Hezbollah military leader in Beirut, ratcheting up fears of a regional war across the Middle East. Lending additional support for oil prices, U.S. crude stockpiles posted their fifth straight weekly decline, marking the longest string of crude drawdowns since a seven-week streak at the end of 2021. Crude still tallied losses in July, with WTI and Brent falling 4.4% and 6.6%, respectively. (21 comments)
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -2.5%. Hong Kong -0.2%. China -0.2%. India +0.2%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris -0.8%. Frankfurt -0.7%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.4%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude +0.8% to $78.50. Gold +0.3% to $2,479.20. Bitcoin -2.3% to $64,506.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bp to 4.05%.
Today's Economic Calendar
07:30 AM Challenger Job Cut Report
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Productivity and Costs
09:45 AM PMI Manufacturing Final
10:00 AM ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM Construction Spending
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Companies reporting earnings today »
What else is happening...
Union check: UAW endorses Kamala Harris for president.
Nvidia (NVDA) re-added to Morgan Stanley's top picks list.
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square USA (PSUS) drops IPO plan.
23andMe (ME) CEO offers to take the company private.
Boeing (BA) names Kelly Ortberg as next chief executive.
Delta Air (DAL) CEO sees $500M hit from global IT outage.
AI drive-thru: Taco Bell (YUM) expands initiative across U.S.
UBER to bring BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF) EVs in global markets.
Carvana (CVNA) rallies on unexpected profit, upbeat outlook.
Increases in stock option open interest $AMD $MSFT $SIRI $NVDA $TSLA $INTC $SPWR $DIS $LUV
Crocs raises FY24 EPS view to $12.45-$12.90 from $12.25-$12.73, consensus $12.64
Affirms FY24 revenue growth outlook of up 3%-5%, consensus $4.13B. Reduces FY24 capex view to $100M-$110M from $120M-$130M.
gm bobber!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Carvana price target raised to $200 from $160 at Needham
UPB in da HIZZLE
Morning Rant ->
$MSFT has closed the day lower than the open after the past 5 reports...
Let's see if it can buck the trend
Morning Watch List : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/july-31st-2024-watch-list/
Starbucks guidance 'should provide some relief,' says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Harbour contends that given tough sentiment heading into the report, Starbucks' mostly in-line Q3 results and sticking to annual guidance "should provide some relief for the stock." However, U.S. sales improvement, which the firm views as "still the key driver," is not visible yet despite "some metrics moving in the right direction," adds the analyst, who maintains an Overweight rating and $98 price target on the shares given the view that there "remains plenty of opportunity if things start to go the right direction."
For about a year, the refrain has remained the same: Don't expect Federal Reserve policymakers to adjust their benchmark interest rate when they meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. This may be the last time that chorus is heard, with today's gathering likely to be the final meeting of the current cycle that the FOMC leaves rates on hold. A plurality of Wall Street Breakfast subscribers see the central bank cutting rates for the first time in September, compared to any of the other coming meetings or no policy changes for 2024.
Snapshot: If there's one big character trait of Fed Chair Jay Powell, it's that he doesn't like to surprise. Unlike at today's press conference, he's only likely to telegraph his views in the coming weeks after feeling fully comfortable with the economic data (like CPI, PCE, non-farm payrolls, etc.). "We believe Powell will wait until Jackson Hole end August to deliver the explicit September cut signal," Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha wrote in a research note. "The Fed leadership is proceeding methodically to build the case for a cut and internal consensus as to the game plan for subsequent moves."
While Q2 GDP came in stronger than expected last week, labor market trends will likely remain key. As Powell emphasized in recent comments, the risks to the Fed's dual mandate of price stability (i.e., 2% inflation) and maximum employment are coming into better balance. Some even think the Fed Chair will say that the two sides are now balanced, which is a big change from the start of the year (when the risks were mainly focused on price stability vs. labor). Easing labor market conditions also means there's a reduced chance of large wage hikes that can re-ignite inflation.
Commentary: SA analyst Damir Tokic writes that if the Fed doesn't signal for a rate cut in September, "the market will be left disappointed" and "the reaction could be negative." David Lerner, SA Investing Group Leader of Group Mind Investing, even brings up the potential for a rare inter-meeting rate cut. "Cutting rates in August is less disruptive politically and could benefit the economy, particularly in the housing market," he explains, while also discussing a contrarian view centered around a decrease of 50 basis points. (4 comments)
Central bank divergence
While the Fed is inching toward a rate cut cycle, the Bank of Japan is moving in the opposite direction. Overnight, the BOJ raised its key short-term interest rate to 0.25%, the highest level since December 2008, and announced plans to halve its bond purchases until March 2026 to ensure market stability. The moves underscored efforts to normalize monetary policy after years of its negative interest rate policy that ended in March. While economists expect one more rate hike this year, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said this depends on whether the economy and prices move in line with its forecasts.
The AI landscape
Speaking of divergence, another round was seen in the latest earnings influx on Tuesday. Microsoft's (MSFT) AI-fueled cloud division grew less than expected despite the tech giant beating revenue and EPS estimates. While there was a lot of talk about the AI product suite, there were comments highlighting "constrained AI capacity" and assets that "will be monetized over 15 years and beyond," prompting shares to fall 2.8% AH. All that big capex spending will still boost data center suppliers, and indeed those benefits were on display in other earnings during the post-market session. AMD (AMD) soared 7.7% AH following its impressive quarterly numbers, and the results even boosted Nvidia (NVDA) and pushed up Nasdaq 100 futures in the premarket trading. (11 comments)
No more time
U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has written to CEOs of the top 10 U.S. airlines to ensure refunds for canceled or delayed flights in accordance with a law passed in May. The FAA Reauthorization Act "did not provide for extensions or delays and we will be taking all appropriate steps to enforce these provisions," he affirmed, stressing the importance of the law in the wake of the global tech outage this month and the busy summer travel season. Airlines for America, a trade group representing carriers including American Airlines (AAL) and Delta Air (DAL), had sought more time to thoroughly test tech solutions required for complying with the new law. (3 comments)
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +1.5%. Hong Kong +2%. China +2.1%. India +0.4%.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.4%. Paris +1.4%. Frankfurt +0.4%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow +0.3%. S&P +1%. Nasdaq +1.5%. Crude +2.8% to $76.83. Gold +0.5% to $2,463.90. Bitcoin -1% to $65,986.
Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 4.14%.
Today's Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
08:15 AM ADP Jobs Report
08:30 AM Treasury Refunding Announcement
08:30 AM Employment Cost Index
09:45 AM Chicago PMI
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
02:00 PM FOMC Announcement
02:30 PM Fed Chair Press Conference
03:00 PM Farm Prices
Companies reporting earnings today »
What else is happening...
Starbucks (SBUX) rallies amid new partnerships, green shoots in U.S.
Josh Shapiro against Nippon deal for U.S. Steel (X) in current form.
Amazon (AMZN) eyes cutting reliance on postal service in rural U.S.
U.S. said to equip F-16s sent to Ukraine with advanced weapons.
Hamas leader killed in Tehran after strike on Hezbollah commander.
PayPal (PYPL) boosts earnings, buyback guidance after Q2 beat.
Procter & Gamble (PG) falls after organic sales miss expectations.
Air New Zealand becomes first major airline to pull emission goals.
DOJ accuses Norfolk Southern (NSC) of delaying passenger service.
Report: Intel (INTC) to eliminate thousands of jobs in cost-cutting effort.
Largest decreases in stock option open interest $LVS $PAA $LUMN $PINS $SIRI $TLRY $MRK $AGNC
MSFT
Arista Networks price target raised to $380 from $340 at Jefferies
Jefferies analyst George Notter raised the firm's price target on Arista Networks (ANET) to $380 from $340 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following what the firm calls "another strong print and guide." The firm was also "intrigued" by Jayshree Ullal's comment that the company hopes to get a fifth trial for AI-backend switching, noting that the company previously talked about having won four out of five major Cloud trials for AI/back-end networking. Jefferies believes the fifth customer - where they didn't participate - was Microsoft (MSFT) and says a new trial at Microsoft might suggest that Arista can displace some InfiniBand usage at the account.
Largest increases in stock option open interest $NVDA $TELL $LVS $INTC $SOFI $SNAP $WULF
Garmin reports Q2 pro forma EPS $1.58, consensus $1.41
Reports Q2 revenue $1.51B, consensus $1.42B. CEO Cliff Pemble said, "Garmin delivered another impressive quarter of growth in both revenue and operating profit, made possible by an innovative product lineup and the strength of our diversified business model. We are pleased with our results so far in 2024, which have exceeded our expectations and give us confidence to raise our full year revenue and EPS guidance."
$PYPL:
Bernstein upgrades to Outperform from Perform - raises PT to $78 from $71
$MS keeps at Equal-weight - raises PT to $71 from $67
Canaccord maintains at Buy - keeps $80 PT
JMP Securities reiterates Buy - keeps $80 PT
Afternoon Rant if you missed -> https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-afternoon-rant-july-30th-2024/
$MSFT reports earnings after the bell with a $21.77 or 5.18% implied move
— Option Millionaires (@OMillionaires) July 30, 2024
How it has closed the next day after the previous 8 earnings reports:
📈+1.82%
📉-2.69%
📈+3.06%
📉-3.76%
📈+7.24%
📉-0.59%
📉-7.71%
📈+6.68%
Avg. move: 4.19% pic.twitter.com/vY2YpdV1Rk
$NVDA down 22% since June 20th - pic.twitter.com/Wsbr4tl0Mp
— Option Millionaires (@OMillionaires) July 30, 2024
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