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Afternoon Rant if you missed -> https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-afternoon-rant-2-12-2025/
Morning Rant ->
https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-morning-rant-2-12-2025/
🎬0:10 $SPY $SPX $DIA #ppi #cpi #thefed
🎬3:25 $IRBT #irobot #shortsqueeze
🎬6:00 $TDOC $TRIP $SSYS
🎬8:25 $INTC #Intel
#StocksToWatch
Fed Chair Powell has begun his testimony
Fed Chair Powell has begun his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee and will have a lot of explaining to do after today's hot CPI report. There were revisions to seasonal factors (the "January effect" where firms boost prices at the beginning of a year) that may have contributed to the forecast miss, and potentially the LA fires -- but such explanations will not appease the Committee. The data at face value are going in the wrong direction for the FOMC. Indeed, the pick up in prices on the month was broadbased with all of the major categories except for Apparel (-1.4%) and "other" (-0.1%) increasing. Additionally, shelter costs (0.4%) and services excluding energy (0.5%) contributing significantly. Prices of "food at home" increased 0.5%, with egg prices jumping 15.2% last month (though a supply shock from the bird flu). Also, Powell's "supercore services" index jumped 0.8%, according to Bloomberg. And importantly, the headline y/y rate rose back to a 3.0% pace, losing the 2% handle, probably making the 2% y/y goal a distant hope.
Stifel Financial introduces Stifel Discover content feed
Stifel Financial announced the launch of Stifel Discover, a new Stifel-branded content feed available through its Wealth Tracker app. The innovative feature transforms how clients engage with Stifel's research and thought leadership, delivering timely, personalized insights through a dynamic experience. Key features of Stifel Discover include: Proprietary Insights - Stifel Discover delivers exclusive analysis and commentary from Stifel's Chief Investment Officer, Chief Economist, Chief Washington Policy Strategist, equity research analysts, and other thought leaders. Users can explore insights tailored to their specific portfolio, market interests, and financial goals across the universe of more than 2,000 global stocks covered by Stifel research. Personalization and Timeliness - The feed updates throughout the day, surfacing the most relevant and high-impact content based on users' preferences and market movements. Seamless Access - Easily accessible from the Wealth Tracker home screen, Stifel Discover is categorized for an effortless browsing experience. Future Customization by Advisors - In upcoming phases, Stifel Financial Advisors will have the ability to personalize client feeds based on financial life stages, ensuring users receive curated content aligned with their investment needs.
Morning Watch List: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/february-12th-2025-watch-list/
U.S. JAN CPI +0.5% (CONSENSUS +0.3%) , EXFOOD/ENERGY +0.4% (CONSENSUS +0.3%)
Janney Montgomery Scott initiated coverage of Capital Power with a Buy rating and C$71 fair value estimate. The firm recommends buying shares Canadian-based independent power producer with 10GW of assets across the US and Canada as it contends that the company is well positioned to grow its generation fleet and see upside from load growth due to reshoring of manufacturing, data center load, and broader electrification. The analyst notes that the firm's fair value estimate represents about 30% upside from current levels
"With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Monday during his semiannual monetary policy testimony on Capitol Hill. He's back for Round 2 today, so make sure to check the latest headlines on Seeking Alpha.
Quote: "If the economy remains strong and inflation does not continue to move sustainably toward 2%, we can maintain policy restraint for longer," Powell told the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. "If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly. We are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate, and policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face."
It all means that the central bank is in wait-and-see mode, and policy will be quickly dictated by the upcoming data. On that note, the Consumer Price Index for January will be released at 8:30 AM ET - and will be more notable than usual as it will be the reference point for costs going into 2025. Similarly, any inflation prints from here will be linked to the performance of the Trump administration, which has vowed to "bring down the U.S. cost of living" and "end the devastating inflation crisis." See a CPI preview
What to watch: Pressure had already been alleviated on Powell after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) would be the focus in bringing down borrowing costs instead of Trump's prior "demand that interest rates drop immediately." In the past, Powell has also been targeted for falling behind the curve on inflation (remember transitory?), but it seems that majority lawmakers are now willing to move on and even lent him support during yesterday's grilling. "It seems to me that you and some of your colleagues deserve some credit," Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) declared. "I'm not saying things are perfect, but I never imagined that our landing could be this soft."
What else is happening...
SA Heatmap: With $3,000/oz in sight, is gold a buy at current levels?
Intel (INTC) gains as VP Vance says AI chips will be made in U.S.
Super Micro (SMCI) sees $40B FY26 revenue driven by AI, Blackwell.
Staples superstar: Coca-Cola (KO) continues to outpace sector.
Charles Schwab (SCHW) offers 24-hour trading to all retail clients.
BYD's God's Eye driver-assistance tech shakes up EV industry.
Wedbush: Musk's bid aimed to slow down OpenAI capital raise.
Goldman ends IPO diversity pledge; Disney (DIS) tweaks DEI efforts.
In brick-and-mortar push, Amazon (AMZN) opens new beauty store.
Adios Gulf of Mexico: Top map apps rename to Gulf of America.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.4%. Hong Kong +2.6%. China +0.9%. India -0.2%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt +0.3%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq flat. Crude -1.3% to $72.37. Gold -0.9% to $2,906.60. Bitcoin -1.9% to $96,186.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bp to 4.55%.
Today's Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 AM Consumer Price Index
10:00 AM Jerome Powell Speech
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
12:00 PM Fed's Bostic Speech
01:00 PM Results of $42B, 10-Year Note Auction
02:00 PM Treasury Statement
05:05 PM Fed's Waller Speech
SHOP
Shopify price target raised to $145 from $130 at RBC Capital
RBC Capital raised the firm's price target on Shopify to $145 from $130 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company reported solid Q4 results, with revenue exceeding consensus more than typical, as Shopify is seeing strong market share gains in key segments, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company's Q1 and FY25 margin guidance were slightly below consensus, but this did not weigh on investor sentiment, RBC adds.
gooooooooooooooooooooood morning bobber
Todays Largest increases in stock option open interest $NVDA $RIOT $AGNC $MSTR $INTC $TSLA $CLF $AUR $TECK
Been a while, but back in $IRBT calls for many reasons, a few here:
🏹 Great chart setup - the last 5 times it broke $9.25 it tested $10.50 quickly thereafter. $13 has been big resistance. If/when that breaks, lookout above
🏹 New CEO bought shares at $12.28 last year. Also brings in a cost conscious mindset and has cut 41% of the headcount with some of that on BS R&D
🏹 $288 mil market cap doing $795 million in sales, meaning it has a .33x Price to Sales Ratio. Just trading at 1x's sales puts the stock at $26.6
🏹Regulatory environment now much more conducive to M&A ( Don't forget $AMZN was buying $IRBT for $61 a share or $1.7 bil in 2022 before it was nixed almost 1 year ago)
🏹 Still sports a hefty 12.6% short interest
🏹 and much more...
Think $10.50 first, then $13 soon after...
The Morning Rant ->
https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-morning-rant-2-11-2025/
🎬 $SPY
🎬 $QQQ
🎬 $ANET
🎬 $ROKU
🎬 $TDOC
UPB in da hizzle
Todays Largest Increases in stock option open interest $MRK $NVDA $SMCI $BBAI $PLUG $TSLA $LCID $CLF $UBER
WMT
Walmart price target raised to $120 from $98 at Citi
Citi raised the firm's price target on Walmart to $120 from $98 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm expects the company's Q4 earnings to beat consensus estimates and guidance. Citi models reported net sales up 3.9% verses the consensus of up 3.8%. Following management's positive tone at ICR Conference, Citi believes Walmart's holiday was strong, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm expects confidence in the company's price gaps and its ability to gain share in the current environment.
Novartis agrees to acquire Anthos for up to $3.1B
Novartis (NVS) announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire Anthos Therapeutics, Inc., a Boston-based, privately held, clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with abelacimab, a late-stage medicine in development for the prevention of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation. The transaction, which is subject to customary closing conditions, is fully in line with Novartis' growth strategy and therapeutic area focus, leveraging the company's strength and expertise in the cardiovascular area. Anthos Therapeutics, launched by Blackstone Life Sciences (BX) and Novartis in 2019, has advanced abelacimab through clinical development under a license from Novartis. Abelacimab is a novel, highly selective, fully human monoclonal antibody designed to induce effective hemostasis-sparing anticoagulation through Factor XI inhibition. Phase 2 data showed a significant reduction in bleeding events in patients taking abelacimab versus a standard of care direct-oral anticoagulant in patients with atrial fibrillation. Three Phase 3 clinical trials are ongoing for patients at risk of arterial and venous clots, one in patients with atrial fibrillation -- LILAC-TIMI 763 -- and two in cancer associated thrombosis -- ASTER4 and MAGNOLIA5. "We are excited to join forces to advance the development of abelacimab, a potential first-in-class treatment and safer approach for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation as well as cancer-associated thrombosis," said Shreeram Aradhye, M.D., President, Development and Chief Medical Officer, Novartis. "Welcoming Anthos Therapeutics strengthens our focus in the cardiovascular space and complements our portfolio of life-changing treatments, comprehensive clinical programs, and strategic collaborations that help thousands of patients with heart disease around the world." Under the terms of the agreement, Novartis will make an upfront payment of $925M upon closing of the transaction, subject to certain customary adjustments, and potential additional payments of up to $2.15B upon achievement of specified regulatory and sales milestones. The transactio
IBM
IBM initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer analyst Param Singh initiated coverage of IBM with an Outperform rating and $320 price target.
EU says Trump tariffs will trigger firm countermeasures
FSLR
First Solar upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho
Mizuho analyst Maheep Mandloi upgraded First Solar to Outperform from Neutral with a $259 price target.
😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎 good morning 😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎
The Morning Rant ->
UPB in da HIZZLEEE
DXCM
BofA says use DexCom's stock move as buying opportunity
DXCM
BofA says use DexCom's stock move as buying opportunity
DexCom shares are down on Monday morning on a notification that some customers are receiving 30 days of supplies instead of 90 days amid inventory constraints, with the company saying it is experiencing temporary delays in its supply chain, which may lead to some pharmacies or durable medical equipment distributors being on backorder, BofA analyst Travis Steed tells investors. The company believes most of these backorders will be addressed within 5-7 days, BofA notes, adding that the supply issue is temporary, and is the result of the inventory spoilage that happened in Q4, which DexCom previously spoke about. BofA, which has a Buy rating and $90 price target on the shares, would use the stock move as a buying opportunity, as it does not see the news having an impact on full year estimates and thinks DexCom's 15-day product could be approved in the near-term.
it is a sea of green, befitting the Eagles' Super Bowl win, with gains on Wall Street, Treasuries, the dollar, gold, and oil. Bullish spillover from European bourses and Asia are supporting Wall Street after the solid nonfarm payroll report on Friday. The markets are shrugging off news of more tariffs, while AI enthusiasm is back, supporting a 0.85% gain on the NASDAQ. The S&P 500 is 0.46% higher, with the Dow up 0.28%. The drop in Treasury yields is also underpinning stocks. Yields are unwinding Friday's gains after the surprising pops in the inflation expectations indexes. Haven demand and bargain hunting are providing a bid and are stymieing concession building ahead of the refunding auctions. The 2-year and wi 3-year yields are down -3.3 bps tp 4.256% and 4.273%, respectively. The wi 10-year is -2.5 bps richer at 4.469%, and the wi 30-year is off -1 bp to 4.680%. The DXY is firmer at 108.299 but has dipped from its 108.440 overnight peak. Gold and oil are firmer on haven and supply factors, even as the dollar gains. Gold has rallied 1.6% to $2907.06 per ounce. Oil is up 1.4% to $72.00 per barrel.
Morning Watch List : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/february-10th-2025-watch-list/
Expedia price target raised to $205 from $190 at DA Davidson
DA Davidson analyst Tom White raised the firm's price target on Expedia to $205 from $190 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company reported a "broad-based beat" in its Q4 revenue and EBITDA while its bookings topped consensus by 5%, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds however that its neutral stance balances the company's solid category position in an overall healthy/resilient leisure travel market and its leading position in an expanding B2B market opportunity, reflecting questions about the pace of recovery in its Vrbo and Hotels.com brands and its ability to meaningfully close its overall profitability/margin gap vs. peers.
gm bobberrrrrrrrrrrr
🔸 OpenAI: Plans to reduce reliance on NVIDIA ( $NVDA) by developing its first in-house AI chip, with design finalization in the next few months. Chips will be manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM)
🔸 ChipMOS Technologies ( $IMOS): Expects 6.3% revenue growth for 2024, despite a 5.4% YoY decline in Dec 2024 and 5.7% YoY decline in Q4 2024. Plans to buy back shares up to T$17.39B.
🔸 Mobileye ( $MBLY): Upgraded to Neutral by Bank of America, citing limited downside risk and bottoming sentiment.
🔸 Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM): Q1 revenue expected at the lower end of guidance due to a $161M (NT$5.3B, net of insurance) impact from a late January earthquake in southern Taiwan.
🔸 Edgewell Personal Care ( $EPC): Q1 adj. EPS $0.07 (est. $0.12); Q1 revs $478.4M (est. $480.16M). FY25 outlook: adj. EPS at lower end of $3.15-$3.35 (est. $3.18), adj. EBITDA at lower end of $356M-$368M, capex 2.5%-3% of revenue.
🔸 Rivian ( $RIVN): Now selling delivery vans to fleets of all sizes in the US, over a year after ending exclusivity with Amazon ( $AMZN).
🔸 Sun Country Airlines ( $SNCY): Announces secondary offering of 6.3M shares and $10M share repurchase from underwriters.
🔸 Illumina ( $ILMN): Downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight by Barclays.
🔸 Merck ( $MRK): Downgraded to Hold from Buy by TD Cowen, price target cut to $100 from $121.
🔸 Pliant Therapeutics ( $PLRX): Shares fall as it pauses enrollment and dosing in the ongoing Beacon-IPF Phase 2b trial of bexotegrast for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
🔸 BP Plc ( $BP): Shares rise after Elliott Management takes a stake, expected to push for strategy and board changes.
🔸 ConocoPhillips ( $COP): Downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy by Raymond James.
🔸 Spirit AeroSystems ( $SPR): Q4 2024 net revenues $1.66B (down from $1.81B YoY, above est. $1.53B); reported $401M in net forward loss charges.
🔸 US Metals Stocks: Shares of Cleveland