Replies to post #772876 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[skitahoe]

No, I'm not saying that at all, I'm saying that US or other national or regional approvals shouldn't proceed until vaccine can be supplied in reasonable quantities in the area where the approval is sought.

As for the UK approval, I have no idea why they're taking so long, but one possibility would be if they were considering a tumor agnostic label. Such a label would put the demand far higher than the existing production facility could fulfill, it could demand the approval of the EDEN. If that determination were made by the UK regulators I think it would be possible to tie the two together.

Gary

[XMaster2023]

Gary you were pretty close according to Gemini. In LA alone 300-500!

Predicting the exact number of Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) cases for a specific region like Los Angeles, California, for a future year (2026) is challenging, as these figures are typically reported retrospectively by cancer registries. However, we can make an informed estimate based on available incidence rates and population data.
Here's what we know:
* National Incidence: The national incidence rate of GBM in the United States is generally cited as 3.09 to 5.0 cases per 100,000 person-years. Some reports mention ranges from 3.19 to 4.17 per 100,000.
* LA County Specifics: A study looking at GBM in Los Angeles County from 1974-1999 found a "population-based description," indicating that local data exists, but a precise, up-to-date incidence rate for LA County for future years isn't readily available in the search results.
* Population of Los Angeles County: The population of Los Angeles County is substantial, typically ranging from 9.8 to 10 million people.
Estimation for LA County (2026):
Let's use a conservative national incidence rate of 3.5 cases per 100,000 people (within the reported range) and an approximate population of 10 million (10,000,000) for Los Angeles County.
Calculation:
(10,000,000 \text{ people} / 100,000 \text{ people}) \times 3.5 \text{ cases} = 100 \times 3.5 = 350 \text{ cases}
Therefore, based on national incidence rates and the population of Los Angeles County, it is estimated that approximately 300 to 500 new cases of GBM could be expected in Los Angeles County next year (2026).
Important Considerations:
* Estimates, not Exact Figures: This is an estimation. Actual numbers can vary due to many factors, including demographic shifts, improved diagnostic techniques, and environmental factors.
* Age and Gender: GBM incidence is higher in older age groups and generally higher in males than females.
* Socioeconomic Status: Some studies suggest a positive correlation between higher socioeconomic status and GBM incidence.
* Data Lag: Cancer statistics are often reported with a lag of several years as data is collected and analyzed.