Replies to post #16496 on Viewer's Choice

[bbotcs]

lj Are U posting or are U texting! The real estate market was different in 2008 from what it is now.
There was a real estate boom in the 2000's, with a LOT of new construction sold.
Mortgages went upside down and people walked away.
Today, real estate sales of existing homes have been very slow, for a lot of reasons, such as people with very low mortgage rates want to stay put, home prices are inflated, putting them out of the reach of first-time buyers, new home construction is slow and prices of new homes are ridiculous. Also, I don't remember the percentage buyers who pay in cash, but the number I heard was CNBC was incredibly high-- I think it was 40 percent, but don't quote me.
The only new construction I have seen around here in the last year or two are 3-story townhouses that cost $700K and up. Of course, there could be a whole lotta new home construction in the South, especially in vacation areas.
I don't see another residential real estate bust.
JMO.

[bbotcs]

lj: An amendment to my prior post
"In 2024, approximately 32.6% of U.S. home purchases in the most populous metropolitan areas were made in cash according to a Redfin survey of the county and cities records of 40 metropolitan areas." So, in theory, two-thirds of homes purchases had mortgages on which the homeowner could default.
Remember, too, that in 2008 home flipping was the rage. It became a hobby for some people.
We don't see that now.
If we go into a deep recession, I believe the causes would be job losses due to AI and other factors, punitive taxation by State and local governments, a big slowdown in the auto market, and, of course, consumers who spend less due to tariffs.
We are headed toward an economy in which things are made using AI robots, which is going to hurt the job market for people who do not have college educations, or even high-school educations.
The job cuts have begun. Even Wendy's want to replace employees with AI, presumably those who take the orders. Amazon has laid off employees in Massachustts, if I am not mistaken, after opening a warehouse operation that is heavily robotic.