You saying that I should sell if I think a bad outcome is going to happen means that statistically speaking you don’t value approval any higher than a 100% increase.
My level of conviction that the application has been referred to CHM may only be 51%. That means by probability I think it has happened but it is not a guarantee. 49% of the outcomes may be for approval. If I think that an approval will increase the share price more than 100% at some point in the future, that makes the investment still worth the risk, even though my probability says that it is in CHM.
If you play roulette you might bet on green even though you think the likelihood of the result being green is not high, because the payback if it is green is worth the risk to you. Same concept.
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