Replies to post #4846 on Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA)

[DewDiligence]

That sounds reasonable for the immediate bump in royalty income. But perhaps more important is that uptake in the acute indication could enable ABBV's Mavyret sales to plateau rather than continuing to gradually decline.

[dewophile]

I just checked and the last year of reporting available is 2023 where there were 4966 cases reported to the CDC in the US. Not sure globallly. Sounds like Mavyret will be the go to for all these cases. assuming this bumps the number of patients treated annually around the world with Mavyret by 10K then that is 250M sales bump, at 5% is 12.5M annually, so more like 3-4M per quarter. they keep 45% of that, so it's really more like 5M a year. When you plug in 5M royalty for 6 years you get a NPV of just under 22M. So the upside to ENTA is real but modest. There could be a halo effect to chronic HCV segment though as prescribers will get more used to prescribing mavyret if their go to now is GILD's products assuming the patient has flexibility under their plan for both ABBV and GILD products. The other would be if some insurers contract only w GILD they will now have to offer Mavyret and some Mavyret Rx for chronic patients would sneak through w coverage. so there could be additional upside, but this is pure speculation on my part