Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA)

[alertmeipp]

Interesting close today, was up nicely @ 7.82/7.84 3 mins before close, then someone decided to dump a large block ...

maybe some shorts are getting panic and try to kill the momentum, maybe just a trader decide to go risk off before weekend. One thing for sure is we can expect to see more swings as we get closer to the RSV deal/data day.

[go seek]

The soufflé was a flop…

[DewDiligence]

Maybe because of the cold kitchen.

[go seek]

🚀ENTA cooking today in a cold kitchen…

[floblu14]

easily 50 bucks overnight ;)

That's it? LOL

[alertmeipp]

Yes, it makes so much sense, and they would also ensure 235 and patents won't fall into competitors' hand.

ENTA's RSV assets to fill its pipeline void....

But at what price?

It will be so great if they paid say 600mm for all the virology assets (EPDS 235 + RSVs), and ENTA gets to keep their immology program to keep going....

easily 50 bucks overnight ;)

We can all hope.

[go seek]

Next week!

[alertmeipp]

just when I thought we would challenge 8s ...

[floblu14]

Wondering what is your basis for that interesting supposition?

1. According to several litigators I personally know - most cases are finalized via arbitration.

2. ENTA wants a jury trial to hear their side, not an erroneous word upon which the lower court's decision was predicated.

3. By buying the company, Pfizer would get all the cash in the bank (200M +), stop any ENTA's prolonged appeals - free & clear and get ENTA's various specialists deep into new molecules for immunology, etc.

But we already know the above.

Barbara Fiacco -
Harvard Law School, J.D., cum laude, 1996
Dartmouth College, A.B., magna cum laude, with high honors in government, 1991

Read More:
https://foleyhoag.com/people/fiacco-barbara/

[Fred Kadiddlehopper]

IMHO I believe Barbara is negotiating the sale of ENTA to Pfizer . Time will tell.

Wondering what is your basis for that interesting supposition?
TIA

[floblu14]

P.S. ENTA has an array of "legal scholars" representing their appeal -

According to the available information regarding the lawsuit Enanta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. v. Pfizer Inc., several attorneys represent Enanta:
Barbara A. Fiacco
Jeremy Younkin
Donald Ross Ware Esq.
Stuart Knight
Taylor Ross Davis
Spenser Angel
Lando & Anastasi, LLP is also listed as representing Enanta in this case.
The nature of the lawsuit is patent infringement. Enanta is claiming that Pfizer's Paxlovid infringes on their patent, the '953 patent.

IMHO I believe Barbara is negotiating the sale of ENTA to Pfizer . Time will tell.

[floblu14]

AI's "thoughts" on ENTA's Appeal -

Here's a summary of the situation regarding the Enanta vs. Pfizer patent dispute:
Lawsuit and Initial Ruling: Enanta Pharmaceuticals sued Pfizer in 2022, alleging infringement of their U.S. Patent No. 11,358,953 ("the '953 Patent") related to Pfizer's COVID-19 antiviral, Paxlovid.

Pfizer's Win in District Court: In December 2024, the United States District Court of Massachusetts granted Pfizer's motion for summary judgment, ruling that Enanta's '953 patent was invalid. The court's decision was based in part on a finding that the '953 Patent was not entitled to claim priority to an earlier provisional application due to a typographical error that introduced "new matter".

Enanta's Appeal: Enanta Pharmaceuticals has announced its intention to appeal this decision to the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. Enanta CEO Jay Luly expressed disappointment with the lower court's ruling and stated they "believe strongly in the merits of our case". They argue that the typographical error should have been a question for a jury to decide, not the court, as it pertains to the factual issue of written description.

Current Status: Enanta filed an opening brief with the United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit on March 21, 2025. The case is now awaiting further proceedings in the appeals court.

Impact: The outcome of this case could have significant implications for Enanta, whose operations are partially funded by royalties from other antiviral products. Enanta has stated that they will not attempt to impede the production or distribution of Paxlovid during the ongoing legal process.

In essence, Enanta is appealing a district court ruling that invalidated its patent related to Paxlovid, and the case is now before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

[DewDiligence]

Late 2032 or 2033.

[DC15]

December 2035 according to AI engine.

[LS89]

The appeal was filed on Feb 6, 2025. The opening brief was filed on March 21, 2025. I don't see an appeal court hearing date for oral arguments yet.

[alertmeipp]

When do you guys expect generic version of Mavyret to enter the market?

[dewophile]

The additional marketing from this new indication (there is probably very little detailing going on now) could also provide a boost for sales in the non-acute segment. ENTA only gets 2.25% of sales though, but at the current share price that could end up being consequential

[go seek]

Anyone have a rough timeline on lawsuit appeal?

[DewDiligence]

Nitpick—ENTA's Mavyret royalties run for another seven years (not six years).

[DewDiligence]

Re: Knock-on effects of today’s approval

There could be a halo effect to chronic HCV segment though as prescribers will get more used to prescribing Mavyret if their go-to now is GILD's products…

…if some insurers contract only w GILD they will now have to offer Mavyret and some Mavyret Rx for chronic patients would sneak through w coverage.

I would submit that these “knock-on” effects will likely be more consequential than you (and other investors) seem to think. From a medical standpoint, there is no longer a valid reason for a physician to prescribe GILD’s Epclusa to any patient—acute or chronic. (GILD’s sales of Harvoni and Vosevi are already de minimis.)

[rwwine]

I'm embarrassed to admit this positive announcement regarding the approval was not on my radar either.  Just busy with my career and life.That stated, this was a very nice surprise and in the grand scheme of things, underscores the success ENTA has demonstrated and delivered.  Little by little the EV should return to the appropriate level.Best to all

[dewophile]

This may have been factored in to a large degree already be some if you payed close enough attention since the data was out and ABBV had BTD by the FDA. (Personally it was not on my radar at all )
Also the US approval accounts for half of my back of the envelope calculation I just assume ROW will follow in due course
Of course we’re trying to make sense of the reaction to the news based on a stock price that to me hasn’t made much sense in a long time so ..

[dewophile]

Ty you too! Eom

[alertmeipp]

>> When you plug in 5M royalty for 6 years you get a NPV of just under 22M


So today’s move under appreciated the actual worth of the news.

As the market cap increased only about half of that.

I guess then again, the market didnt really ascribe any value to the royalty to begin with

[alertmeipp]

RSV next!

[floblu14]

[floblu14]

ENTA Short Interest
Enanta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock (ENTA) Short Interest
Settlement Date......Short Interest...Avg. Daily Share Volume........Days to Cover
05/30/2025............. 2,721,617...................105,008.........................25.918187

Shorts are beginning to get paranoia.

[biotech_researcher]

Silly to think this is a stock that is worth the risk of shorting. I take that back as it is actually stupid..

[go seek]

Continued investment success dewophile! May your bucket 🪣 continue to grow 💲.

[dewophile]

I still have over 200K shares the 3500 is a drop in the bucket

[alertmeipp]

For your and my sake, I hope you regret selling those 3500 shares big time in a few months;)

Tempted as well (with intention to buy back cheaper if the news does not worth the spike) but by the time i had more understanding on this, it already dipped below 8.

Well I guess human knowledge still worth gold in this Ai era.

[dewophile]

The NPV of the remaining royalty stream is 130M based on very conservative estimates out through the remainder of the patent
I couldn't help myself and I did sell 3500 shares today over 8, but the current price is still a joke despite the run up from the 4s

[dewophile]

I just checked and the last year of reporting available is 2023 where there were 4966 cases reported to the CDC in the US. Not sure globallly. Sounds like Mavyret will be the go to for all these cases. assuming this bumps the number of patients treated annually around the world with Mavyret by 10K then that is 250M sales bump, at 5% is 12.5M annually, so more like 3-4M per quarter. they keep 45% of that, so it's really more like 5M a year. When you plug in 5M royalty for 6 years you get a NPV of just under 22M. So the upside to ENTA is real but modest. There could be a halo effect to chronic HCV segment though as prescribers will get more used to prescribing mavyret if their go to now is GILD's products assuming the patient has flexibility under their plan for both ABBV and GILD products. The other would be if some insurers contract only w GILD they will now have to offer Mavyret and some Mavyret Rx for chronic patients would sneak through w coverage. so there could be additional upside, but this is pure speculation on my part

[alertmeipp]

Good point, the latter would make the remaining royalties steam more valuable

[DewDiligence]

That sounds reasonable for the immediate bump in royalty income. But perhaps more important is that uptake in the acute indication could enable ABBV's Mavyret sales to plateau rather than continuing to gradually decline.

[alertmeipp]

AI says they would increase ENTAs royalties revenue by around 3 to 7mm per quarter?

Does it make sense?

[wags23]

Not the best timing!

[DewDiligence]

FDA approves Mavyret as_first_treatment_for acute HCV:

https://ir.enanta.com/news-releases/news-release-details/enanta-pharmaceuticals-partner-abbvie-receives-us-fda-approval

[alertmeipp]

You just did another one ;)

[alertmeipp]

Smart shorts are like sharks, they go where the blood is. They likely will flip to long and squeeze the dumber shorts and then sold out before the news hit. They don’t care about the fundamentals mostly, just momentum and math.

[floblu14]

The SHORTS might be reawakening. Two large blocks (SHORTS?) this A.M. when the stock was rebounding.

May the SHORTS (FORCE) be with thee in an UPward squeeze

[mouton29]

If a seller wants to explain that he is selling because he thinks a third injected monoclonal antibody prophylaxis is approved is material to Enanta's prospects, and that this wasn't expected after two successful phase 3 trials by a major pharma, that's useful information. If you disagree, add it to your scales when weighing whether to add or establish a position, seems like it's always useful to have a sense of why people are selling. I added a few shares.

[alertmeipp]

Added some this morning.
Deal literally can come any days soon

[biotech_researcher]

Untrue.

[vinmantoo]

Following his mostly pessimistic posts why would he own any? Hmmm

It is okay to be pessimistic. However, his posts are also often wildly inaccurate or even wrong.

[wags23]

Shorty

[wags23]

Following his mostly pessimistic posts why would he own any? Hmmm

[jonathanheart]

Why do you think is important to us if you sell ?

[biotech_researcher]

Sold another 10,000 shares of ENTA..

[go seek]

Kennedy fires vaccine advisors…
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5341034-rfk-jr-fires-cdcs-independent-vaccine-advisors/