Seve, you're also only looking at today. I think Denner is trying to accomplish a number of things to increase valuation:
1. Continue building out EU pipeline and RoW.
2. Develop new label expansion, product, or combo story (ie. new formulation, GLP-1 oral combo story, authorized generic strategy, etc.)
3. Along with #2 above (via new formulation and AG), as well as with ongoing litigation, attempt to re-capture some or all of US market (and then the ability actually start marketing again).
There is a potential range of outcomes. If only #1 happens above, we'll see a modest multiple (2-3x) of projected EU revenue and RoW royalties. US revenue multiple would be modest, at best (again, this is assuming they cannot manage to re-capture any of the market). This would be the low-end/worst case, ~$2B buyout.
If they can expand the label, roll out the new formulation, establish a combination therapy, re-capture US market, or some combination of those, then the multiple will expand materially (6-8x or more is not unheard of) on a much higher projected revenue base. $5-8B is possible under this scenario.
If Denner did not think any of this was possible, they would have either cut their losses, or sold the company for $1-2B already. But I think his expectation is far beyond that.
Many people point to the Medicines Company deal, but I see it more closely resembling the Ariad/Takeda deal. He sold Ariad for $5.2B when it was doing 150-200M in revenue on Iclusig. A drug that had faced challenges from the FDA. It took 4-5 years for that deal to take place after Sarissa first got involved.
But Sarissa needs to have some of this in place (or at least in motion) before a max deal can take place. I think this is going to take another 18-24 months to come to fruition. Europe has just been much slower to evolve, and I am certain they want at least China and France under national reimbursement, as well as more clarity on their legal situation. They could also have the new formulation and AG on the table within that timeframe.
It's also my belief that Sarissa is hoarding cash (their own cash). I think there will come a point where a bunch of factors evolve at the same time (what was mentioned above, as well as Sarissa and/or Amarin buying shares) and we see some explosive SP growth. This will be the signal that a deal is heating up. They want to start shopping the company at a moment of strength, not weakness.
But...the lack of transparency/communication, and the stock price manipulation has been highly frustrating.
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