Replies to post #229668 on DD Support Board and Research Team

[shajandr]

This is the best hour of your time that you will have spent this month - maybe this year. Maggie Lake has a great channel with very interesting guests. Michael Howell is the closest representative of shajandr's thinking on this subject. Before you throw more munny into debt, you ought to understand that bonds may be the riskiest asset to hold - and WHY that is the case now, whereas in previous times bonds were a safe haven.

I have spent and do spend a lotta time thinking thru this - over the course of many years. This interview with Michael Howell is 95 percent reflective of my CONclusions to-date (subject to future change, of course). I differ with him re: (1) Bitcoin, and (2) that the Fed should be lowering rates now and increasing liquidity, otherwise nott much.

The faux Chinese curse "may you live in inneresting times" is nigh upon us. Worldwide debt and fiat currencies have reached/are reaching the point where Galbraith pulled the ejection handle and bailed with his infamous dodge "in the long run we are all dead". Fiat currencies are unbacked promises to be redeemable for value - promises which are unlimited in issuance capacity - butt the ability to exchange them for value is limited by the actual economic value in existence at the time of redemption. Simply put, far more promises of a set value have been and are issued than the aggregate value that can be redeemed. It is simply a microcosm of pennystock dilution schemes, where there may be some asset held by the corporation, butt by CONtinually printing more shares the actual value of existing shares declines. Unlike the pennystocks, sovereign debt must be serviced or default, and to service an unsustainable and growing debt (worldwide) the only alternative to default is dilution. Where we are now, dilution is nott a straightforward solution, as inflation drives up the carrying cost of huge debt, requiring more monetary dilution - and you reach a chain reaction/feed-forward event horizon.

Executive Summary: This is all about making more promises than you can keep. That's it. And that's all it is. This is what fiat money always does.

https://www.amazon.com/Ascent-Money-Financial-History-World/dp/0143116177

Watch or lissen to this all the way thru. Tell us what you think Howell has wronGGG. THIS is a discussion that we need to have and you need to think thru. As I stated in the 2008 financial "crisis" under a prior username and to others in-person, 2008 was just the foreshock - it was nott the main earthquake. And, as we know, my posts age like fine Alexander Valley cabernets. I understand math (nowhere to the degree that DaSun does), math cannot be cajoled, it will nott accept being lied to, math has no politics - it cannot be pursuaded. Debt has hit a runaway feed-forward loop and holding assets that are denominated in fiat currencies is NOT where you want to be going forward. Interesting times lie dead ahead, just like the iceberg in front of the Titanic.

If you find this video valuable, read his latest book: https://oceanofpdf.com/authors/michael-j-howell/pdf-capital-wars-the-rise-of-global-liquidity-download/

And now - the video:

Janice: my CONfusion, whilst there is this:



I was thinking of this blend at TJs - which I use a lott:



I unnerstand that you use the blocks of parmesan reggiano and hand-grate it:



I CONflated the second image with the first, although from time-to-time I have used the shaved parmesan reggiano from the first image. I mostly use the blend of romano and parmesan in the second image.

Ciao, bella.

shaj (3 posts of 3 for 21 Abril 2025) ~OUTT4now

[BullNBear52]

Rates are dropping(yield) on buying debt(debt vehicles) which means they become more expensive. I am getting less for the same amount of cash put in. And it is currently a slow process. Short term

Well your short term reference was clear as mud.

You are correct when the yields on t-bills drop they do become more expensive. But it's an inverse relationship and what you are missing is what is driving those yields down! People are looking for a safe harbor and treasuries are the gold standard for that. The $6T that came out of stocks didn't just disappear. It went into short term and long term debt making them cheaper.

Look at your chart and compare it to how the market was doing last July. The market was cruising along but slowly started to slide when Trump was elected in November.

I got out of the market in January so I contributed to your problem I guess. I'm not getting the same returns I was in July but I'm not losing money either. You simply choose a different path last year and now you're not making as much money as you were. Join the club.