In the nearly 4 decades I invested in IMGN it was frequently up then down. IMGN was nearly as quiet as NWBO much of the time and when you have quiet, you generally move down unless something with a known date is anticipated.
Approval of DCVax-L has been anticipated since the third quarter of last year, while most here, except the bashers like yourself, feel certain that approval is coming, none of us are certain of when.
I'm a believer that anticipation would move the stock up, but only if there is a target for that anticipation. Even a declaration by the company of confidence they'll have an answer before the third quarter, we'd have a target of June 30th, or sooner. Share price would rise as we worked our way through the second quarter.
Roomers clearly also lead to anticipation, if the roomers come from a credible source. Technicians will tell you that there is always a tell, normally caused by someone knowing somethings coming acts on what they know. It may not be insider trading, but if you look hard enough, a relative or friend of someone who actually knows starts buying and telling friends, and the word spreads. It might be only hours or days before the event, or perhaps it's a week or more, but once word gets out, the technicians get their tell, and the price moves in anticipation of what's about to happen.
I certainly don't know what the Annual Report will say, I don't know if we have any technical Abstract submitted for ASCO, or if we'll again appear in the Experts Theater there, but all these things once know do create anticipation of what's coming.
Perhaps no anticipatory event will occur, whether technicians agree, or not, it can happen. We may go from near 52 week lows to new 52 week highs in the same day. Our 52 week high is only 62 cents, I believe we'll easily exceed that on the day approval is announced if anticipation doesn't take us higher before then.
I didn't have a really big gain in IMGN until the buyout was announced, but was up substantially on the drug approval that led to it. I didn't want the buyout because as good as it was, I believed we'd go far higher in time if we built revenue from sales of our newly approved product.
I hope the same doesn't happen here, a buyout before most want it. In IMGN's case, it was about 90% Institutionally owned and while many individual investors agreed with me, the Institutions wanted the money, so the vote wasn't close.
I expect that once NWBO is into the $5 to $10 range Institutional ownership will grow rapidly and before you know it, over half the shares will be in Institutional hands. In part it means many of us will be selling them shares, but you can also bet that virtually all stock offerings to raise working capital will go to Institutions.
Let's see what we get in the Annual Report, perhaps we'll have something to anticipate.
Gary
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