Agree with all the points . Esp lack of any hiring towards marketing and large scale commercialization also proves that assertion . Agree with your patents point as well :
“Only a small percentage of patents filed in the U.S. actually generate significant profits. Here’s a breakdown based on various studies and expert estimates: • Less than 5% of patents generate substantial revenue. • Around 10–15% may bring in some level of licensing income or commercial benefit. • Over 80% of patents never recoup their filing and maintenance costs.
Most patents are filed for strategic reasons (e.g. defensive IP, portfolio building, or signaling innovation) rather than direct monetization.”
And here's another reason that buy out is NOT the end of our gains. This drug is going to make a lot of money for who ever owns it. All you need to do is look at what Ozempic has done for Eli Lilly. Granted a company like Merck for example has 2.5 billion shares (thought 1.4 was too much dilution?). They are not going to have the same kind of gains that a 1.4 billion float company could have. That said this will be off set IMO by efficiencies and time savings. I big company will get us there quicker and with better profit margins. So bring on the buy out around 5-10 dollars and save the bulk of your shares and just keep riding the wave. IF your shares get sold in order to complete the deal, go ahead and buy the new company shares and enjoy the ride.
That sounds good but I think your analysis is based more upon what you would do in her shoes and not on the track record of this individual and how far she has being willing to go to avoid sharing control of NWBO. Maybe with DCVax-L being approved some of that need for control (assuming it was partly altruistic) will lessen if the technology becomes more visible and harder for any acquiring firm to simply bury.
Still shareholders have cited lack of proper preparation for going it alone for years as a reason to hope for a buyout and an end to this drama (with TLD being the original triggering event not approval) but it has never happened.
Thanks for the enlightenment one week account and the effort of driving expectations down on this board. The main narrative of this board now for a long time.
Thank God, nothing LP has said, nothing the company has done, nothing management signals, in any way points to what you are stating in terms of valuation of the company and its efforts on so many levels.
1. Linda Powers Holding Out for $25–$50 a share.
This is consistent with her actions over the years: • She’s refused early licensing deals that could have diluted NWBO’s long-term value. • She’s built out full manufacturing control (Sawston facility, Flaskworks, Advent alignment). • She’s still driving toward full clinical validation, global IP, and platform scale.
So yes, her playbook doesn’t suggest a $5–$10 exit—she’s likely aiming for a platform-level valuation akin to Moderna/Genmab-type success, especially post-approval.
2. Three New Trials with ORR as Primary Endpoint
This is a major shift. • ORR (Objective Response Rate) endpoints can show clear tumor regression quickly, making trials faster, cheaper, and more appealing to regulators and partners. • It’s also easier for market access (e.g., conditional approvals or accelerated pathways).
If these trials are fully funded and independent (SPORE, NIH, Merck, etc.), they provide a non-dilutive validation path.
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3. Two Combo Trials: Poly-ICLC + SPORE 1 • The Poly-ICLC trial, publicly confirmed by UCLA and Linda Liau, had 14 years of development. Early data suggested synergistic effects with DCVax-L. • The SPORE 1 trial is NIH-backed and dates to 2019, meaning it’s well into its cycle and likely producing meaningful data.
Together, these aren’t “speculative future trials”—they’re data-rich, long-maturing trials that could generate pivotal evidence for broader applications (including FDA approval or label expansion).
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4. Platform Potential: DCVax-L + Direct + Automation
You’re not overstating the upside: • Personalized immunotherapy with a universal tumor lysate-based vaccine has a TAM beyond GBM. • Flaskworks/EDEN automation could allow scale-up to hundreds of thousands of patients/year, with reduced COGS and decentralized manufacturing.
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Realistic Price Target Range?
At $20–$50/share, you’re implying a market cap of $24B–$60B (based on ~1.2B shares). That’s: • Comparable to Kite Pharma’s exit ($12B) or Moderna pre-COVID valuation • Plausible if: • GBM approval is followed by commercial traction • Combo trials show efficacy in melanoma, colon, or other solid tumors • Flaskworks enables scaling/licensing in the US, EU, and Asia
PS: For any noise about Advent Bioservices and its ownership/relations with NWBO antidote here: